Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAN-YI (16W) Update #002

for Friday, 13 September 2013 [7:09 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MAN-YI (16W) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued at: 6:30 PM PhT (10:30 GMT) Friday 13 September 2013

MAN-YI (16W) becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves quickly across the Western Pacific Ocean...threatens Southern Japan.

Residents and visitors along Southern Japan should closely monitor the development of Man-yi (16W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Man-yi (16W) was located over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 245 km south of Iwo To, Japan or 1,980 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Southern Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Man-yi (16W) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Man-yi is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Man-yi (16W) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to northwest during the next 24 hours...gradually recurving to the north-northeast through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Man-Yi will pass well to the west of Iwo To Island on Saturday afternoon...moving closer toward the southern shores of Honshu, Japan by Sunday afternoon and evening.

TS Man-yi will continue to strengthen during the next 48 hours...and could be near-Typhoon strength on Saturday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds increasing to 110 km/hr.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to strengthen as it turns more northwesterly...about 865 km south-southeast of Tanabe, Japan [5PM SEP 14: 26.0N 136.6E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: At near-Typhoon strength as it recurves towards the north-northeast closer to the coast of Southern Honshu...about 340 km south-southeast of Tanabe, Japan [5PM SEP 15: 30.7N 136.1E @ 110kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Typhoon as it traverse Chiba Prefecture along Southern Honshu...about 70 km south-southeast of Tokyo, Japan [5PM SEP 16: 35.1N 140.0E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin and Chichijima Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, northwest and near the center of Man-yi (16W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Sep 13, 2013
Class/Name: TS Man-yi (16W)
Location of Center: Near 22.6º N Lat 141.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km S of Iwo To, Japan
Distance 2: 500 km SSW of Chichijima
Distance 3: 645 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 4: 1460 km S of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 5: 1980 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

http://weather.com.ph/images/20130913105753.gif

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MAN-YI (16W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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