Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TORAJI (15W) Update #001

for Friday, 30 August 2013 [7:51 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM TORAJI (15W) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 5:30 PM PhT (09:30 GMT) Monday 02 September 2013

The strong disturbance (LPA) near the northeast coast of Taiwan has developed into a Tropical Depression (TD) last night...and is now Tropical Storm TORAJI (15W). The storm is currently heading slowly towards the western coast of Kyushu, Japan. Its outer rainbands are bringing rains and gusty winds across Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus and Western Japan should closely monitor the development of Toraji (15W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Toraji (15W) was located over the East China Sea...about 180 km northwest of Okinawa, Japan or 565 km east-northeast of Taipei, Taiwan...currently moving northeast with a forward speed of 17 km/hr towards Western Kyushu.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers from the center. Toraji (15W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Kong-Rey (Nando) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Toraji (15W) is expected to continue moving northeastward with a decreased forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Toraji (15W) will be passing over the seas north of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands today through Wednesday.

TS Toraji (15W) will gradually intensify through the next 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds reaching 85 to 95 km/hr by Tuesday and Wednesday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifies as it continues to move northeastward across the East China Sea...about 290 km north of Okinawa, Japan [5PM SEP 03: 29.1N 128.0E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Slows down gradually as it nears the coast of Western Kyushu...about 175 km southwest of Kagoshima, Japan [5PM SEP 04: 30.5N 129.3E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly as it starts transforming into an Extratropical (Mid-Latitude) Cyclone while along the western shores of Kyushu...about 95 km south-southwest of Nagasaki, Japan [5PM SEP 05: 32.0N 129.6E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern part of the East China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of the East China Sea, Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 100 to 250 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Toraji (15W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Sep 02, 2013
Class/Name: TS Toraji (15W)
Location of Center: Near 27.6º N Lat 126.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km NW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 295 km WSW of Amami Island
Distance 3: 405 km NE of Ishigakijima
Distance 4: 565 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 595 km SW of Kagoshima, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 17 kph
Towards: Western Kyushu, Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of Center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 370 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TORAJI (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation