Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TORAJI (15W) Update #004

for Wednesday, 04 September 2013 [7:45 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM TORAJI (15W) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued at: 7:15 AM PhT (23:15 GMT) Wednesday 04 September 2013

Tropical Storm TORAJI (15W) has accelerated northeastward and made landfall over Southern Kyushu, Japan...starts to weaken. Rains and winds lashing the area.

Residents and visitors along Western and Central Japan should closely monitor the development of Toraji (15W).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Toraji (15W) was located over Southern Kyushu...about 30 km east of Kagoshima, Japan or 330 km southwest of Kochi, Japan...currently moving northeast with a increased forward speed of 28 km/hr towards Shikoku, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center. Toraji (15W) has grown into a average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Toraji is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Toraji (15W) is expected to continue moving generally northeastward, rapidly increasing its forward speed throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Toraji (15W) will be over Shikoku Island by Thursday morning.

TS Toraji (15W) will continue to lose strength during the next 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to just 45 km/hr on Thursday, as it becomes an Extratropical (Middle-Latitude) Cyclone.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical as it moves across Shikoku Island...dissipating over land...about 50 km ENE of Kochi, Japan [5AM SEP 05: 33.7N 134.1E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Southern Kyushu.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Kyushu, Western Honshu and Shikoku (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Toraji (15W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Sep 04, 2013
Class/Name: TS Toraji (15W)
Location of Center: Near 31.6º N Lat 130.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km E of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 2: 165 km SSE of Nagasaki, Japan
Distance 3: 330 km SW of Kochi, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NE @ 28 kph
Towards: Shikoku, Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TORAJI (15W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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