Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #008

for Thursday, 19 September 2013 [1:16 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Thursday 19 September 2013

Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) has jogged northward during the past 3 hours while maintaining its powerful winds of 165 km/hr near the eye...threat to Northern Luzon and Taiwan remains.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and Western Visayas today...and will start to affect Western & Central Luzon including Metro Manila and CaLaBaRZon beginning Friday thru Sunday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the eye of TY Usagi (Odette) was located over the north central part of the Philippine Sea...about 615 km east-northeast of Palanan, Isabela or 650 km east-southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently moving north to north-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Usagi (Odette) is expected to move northwest during the next 24 hours...and will turn more to the west-northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will remain over the open waters of the Philippine Sea as it moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon on Friday...and will over the Batanes Islands on Saturday morning.

TY Usagi (Odette) will continue to intensify within the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Category 4 TY on Friday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds increasing to 215 km/hr by Friday and Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify as it moves northwest across the North Philippine Sea...about 345 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes [11AM SEP 20: 19.2N 125.2E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Attains Category 4 status while moving west-northwest across the Batanes Islands...about 15 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [11AM SEP 21: 20.9N 121.7E @ 215kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns westward across the South China Sea approaching Hong Kong Area...weakens to a Category 3 TY...about 190 km southeast of Shantou, China [11AM SEP 22: 22.1N 117.9E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the North Central part of the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The northern coastal areas of Catanduanes (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Luzon and Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands beginning Friday through Saturday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu Sep 19, 2013
Class/Name: TY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 17.3º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 615 km ENE of Palanan, Isabela
Distance 2: 650 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 690 km E of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 740 km ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 5: 745 km SE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: N @ 11 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Saturday Morning [8AM-11AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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