Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #011

for Friday, 20 September 2013 [2:40 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

SUPER TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued at: 1:45 PM PhT (05:45 GMT) Friday 20 September 2013

USAGI (ODETTE) has accelerated during the past 6 hours while maintaining its status as an extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon...endangers Extreme Northern Luzon and Southern Taiwan particularly the Batanes Islands. Outer rainbands now spreading across Northern Luzon.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa and Visayas today...and across Metro Manila, CaLaBaRZon, and the western sections of Northern & Central Luzon beginning Saturday thru Monday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 11:00 am today, the eye of STY Usagi (Odette) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 305 km northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 315 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving northwest with increasing forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 260 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 92 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (500 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

STY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving northwest to west-northwest during the next 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will be passing very close to the northeast of Batanes Islands by early Saturday morning...and will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday afternoon as it moves across the South China. By Sunday morning, Usagi (Odette) will be over Southern China.

STY Usagi (Odette) will start to weaken within the next 24 to 48 hours...and could be downgraded to a Category 4 Typhoon (TY) by Saturday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute sustained winds decreasing to 205 km/hr on Sunday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Passed very close to the Batanes Islands as it weakens to a Category 4 TY...about 75 km northwest of Itbayat, Batanes [11AM SEP 21: 21.2N 121.2E @ 240kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens into a Category 3 TY as it approaches the southeastern coasts of Southern China...about 140 km south-southeast of Shantou, China [11AM SEP 22: 22.3N 117.1E @ 205kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Over Guangdong, China...weakens to Category 2...about 150 km northwest of Macau, China [11AM SEP 23: 23.0N 112.3E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

28-KM ROUND EYE - Over the North Central part of the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Central Part of the Philippine Sea
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern Luzon including Calayan, Batanes and Babuyan Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Luzon and Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands beginning today through Saturday. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon, Bicol Region and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri Sep 20, 2013
Class/Name: STY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 19.7º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 305 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 315 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 350 km ENE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 400 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 335 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Saturday Morning [2AM-5AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,110 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft (>5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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