Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) Update #017

for Sunday, 22 September 2013 [9:00 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON USAGI (ODETTE) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Sunday 22 September 2013

Typhoon USAGI (ODETTE) is now well outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it churns west-northwestward across the South China Sea in the general direction of Hong Kong and Macau. This typhoon has weakened to Category 3 as its rainbands cotninues to spread across the coastal areas of Southern China, Taiwan and the northern part of the South China Sea. Improving weather conditions will be expected today across the Batanes Islands and Ilocos Provinces as the typhoon moves farther away from the Philippines.

USAGI (ODETTE) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions with occasional slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains or thunderstorms across Western Visayas, western sections of Northern and Central Luzon, MiMaRoPa, Metro Manila, Bicol Region and CaLaBaRZon today until Monday. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm PABUK (19W) - a newly-formed cyclone continues to move WNW across the open seas of the West Pacific Ocean. Its center was located about 470 km SSE of Iwo To or 2,235 km ENE of Basco, Batanes (21.1N Lat 143.5E Lon)...with maximum winds of 95 km/hr near the center...currently moving NW at 13 kph. This storm is still very far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hong Kong and Macau should closely monitor the development of Usagi (Odette).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the eye of TY Usagi (Odette) was located over the northern part of the South China Sea...about 405 km west-northwest of Basco, Batanes or 420 km east-southeast of Hong Kong, China...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr towards Guangdong Province (Southern China).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 325 kilometers. Usagi (Odette) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Usagi (Odette) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Usagi (Odette) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the west through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Usagi (Odette) will be approaching Guangdong Province in Southern China later this afternoon...and will make landfall over Hong Kong Area early tomorrow morning between 2 to 5 AM. Usagi (Odette) will start to dissipate on Monday as it weakens to a Tropical Storm while moving over land, across the southern part of Guangxi Province.

TY Usagi (Odette) will continue to weaken during the next 24 to 48 hours...and will be downgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon on Monday morning...and as a Tropical Storm on Tuesday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 65 km/hr on Tuesday.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Makes landfall very close to the north of Hong Kong...weakens to Category 1...about 55 km north-northwest of Hong Kong, China [5AM SEP 22: 22.7N 113.9E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Over the southern part of Guangxi Province...just a minimal Tropical Storm...about 185 km north-northwest of Zhanjiang, China [5AM SEP 23: 22.9N 110.0E @ 65kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just a remnant low pressure as it moves across the China-Vietnam Border...about 155 km north of Ha Long, Vietnam [5PM SEP 24: 22.4N 107.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the northern part of the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern Part of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Southern China, Taiwan and the northwestern part of Northern Luzon particularly Ilocos Norte. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 199 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 200 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Usagi (Odette).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern China today. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Taiwan (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun Sep 22, 2013
Class/Name: TY Usagi (Odette)
Location of Eye: Near 21.7º N Lat 118.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 240 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 245 km SE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 405 km WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 420 km ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 5: 480 km ESE of Macau
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Guangdong Province
24hr Rainfall Accum (Near the Center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 45 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY USAGI (ODETTE)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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