for Sunday, 10 November 2013 [9:00 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 017
Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Sunday 10 November 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 10 November 2013
Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) continues to weaken while maintaining its fast movement towards Northern Vietnam...now moving over the Gulf of Tonkin...very close to the southern coast of Hainan Island. High winds, heavy torrential rains and possible storm surges of up to 12 feet (wind-driven big waves) is likely to flood the coastal areas of Southern Hainan, Central and Northern Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Vietnam, Hainan Island and Laos should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 8:00 am today, the eye of TY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over the eastern fringes of the Gulf of Tonkin...about 160 km south-southeast of Sanya, Hainan Island or 220 km east-northeast of Da Nang, Vietnam...currently moving northwest with a forward speed of 30 km/hr towards the southern coast of Hainan, Central & Northern Vietnam.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. TY Haiyan remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across.
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TY Haiyan is expected to continue moving rapidly in a northwest track within the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of TY Haiyan will continue cruising fast very near the coastal areas of Southern Hainan this afternoon...and will make landfall somewhere along the coastal areas of Hai Phong and Nam Dinh...and will be passing over or very close to the city on Hanoi Sunday morning.
TY Haiyan (Yolanda) will continue losing strength within the next 24 hours as the system traverses the slightly cooler waters of the Gulf of Tonkin...and will be just a Tropical Storm (TS) on Sunday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 85 km/hr.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TS as it moves overland (Northern Vietnam)...about 80 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam [8AM NOV 11: 20.7N 106.6E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD FILLED EYE - Over the SW Coast of Hainan Island. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Southwestern Hainan. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The rest of Hainan Island.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern and Central Vietnam, Northern Laos, and the Leizhou Peninsula (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan (Yolanda).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Hainan, Northern and Central Vietnam today. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Southern Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 10, 2013
Class/Name: TY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 16.9º N Lat 110.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 160 km SSE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 2: 220 km ENE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 270 km ENE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 4: 565 km SE of Nam Dinh, Palawan
Distance 5: 640 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph
Towards: SW Hainan & Northern Vietnam>
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY HAIYAN (YOLANDA)...go visit our website @:
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