for Friday, 08 November 2013 [7:33 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
SUPER TYPHOON HAIYAN (YOLANDA) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued at: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 08 November 2013
Next Update:12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Saturday 09 November 2013
Super Typhoon HAIYAN (YOLANDA) is now moving generally westward over the northern part of Sulu Sea as it weakens slightly after crossing Northern Panay. It remains a Category 5 dangerous cyclone.
Residents and visitors along Visayas and Luzon should closely monitor the development of Haiyan (Yolanda).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of STY Haiyan (Yolanda) was located over the Sulu Sea...about 65 km east of Pamalican Island or 95 km southwest of Boracay Island ...currently moving very quickly westward with a forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Calamian Group of Islands.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have slightly decreased to 270 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 90 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers. STY Haiyan remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
STY Haiyan is expected to continue moving rapidly in a west to west-northwest track in the next 24 hours then turns to northwest through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of STY Haiyan will be passing very close north of Pamalican Island at around 8 PM tonight then traverses the Calamian Group of Island later. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by noontime Saturday...and will be near the coast of Central Vietnam on Sunday afternoon.
STY Haiyan (Yolanda) will weaken slightly within the next 24 through 48 hours as the system traverses the West Philippine and South China Seas...and will be just a Category 4 TY on Saturday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 1-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to just 240 km/hr by Saturday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens slightly but remains a very dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon...already out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 600 km WNW of El Nido, Palawan [2PM NOV 09: 13.1N 114.5E @ 240kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Right off the coast of Central Vietnam...weakens to Category 2...about 15 km NE of Hue, Vietnam [2PM NOV 10: 13.1N 114.5E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD FILLED EYE - Over Northern Sulu Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northern Sulu Sea. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western Panay, Pamalican and Cuyo Islands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central and Western Visayas, MiMaRoPa, rest of Southern Luzon (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Haiyan.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Calamian Group of Islands, Pamalican Island, Cuyo Island and Southern Mindoro tonight. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of MiMaRoPa and Western Panay (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri Nov 08, 2013
Class/Name: STY Haiyan (Yolanda)
Location of Eye: Near 11.3º N Lat 123.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km E of Pamalican Island
Distance 2: 95 km SW of Boracay Island
Distance 3: 165 km NSW of Roxas City
Distance 4: 175 km E of El Nido Island
Distance 5: 145 km WNW of Iloilo City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 270 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 325 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: W to WNW @ 30 kph
Towards: Calamian Group of Islands
CPA [ETA] to Calamian Group of Islands: Tonight [between 7-9PM PhT]
Minimum Central Pressure: 914 millibars (hPa)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 RGB & INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGES:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY HAIYAN (YOLANDA)...go visit our website @:
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