Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 15 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #020 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) UPGRADED TO TYPHOON STATUS...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is now expected to track NNW to NW for the

next 2 days and start weakening tomorrow evening as cold-dry air from

the NE Monsoon is likely to entrain into DOLPHIN's circulation. The 3

to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN dissipating over the Nor-

thern Philippine Sea...shall be downgraded into a tropical depression

on Thursday or Friday (Dec 18-19) while turning northward in response

to a passing frontal system off SE China which breaks the high pressure

ridge.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation has grown larger to almost 620 km in

diameter with excellent poleward & equatorial outflows. Its rain bands

remains at sea and is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its

rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm near the center

of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 15 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.7º N...LONGITUDE 130.1º E
DISTANCE 1: 635 KM (343 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 715 KM (385 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 735 KM (397 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 755 KM (408 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 780 KM (420 NM) ENE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 610 KM (330 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 19 FEET (5.7 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 PM PST MON DEC 15
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 06Z MON DEC 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.4N 129.9E / 130-160 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 16.4N 129.4E / 120-150 KPH / NNW @ 11 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 18.6N 128.0E / 65-85 KPH / NNW @ 05 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 19.8N 127.6E / 45-65 KPH / N @ 04 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER POSITION: 14.5N 130.2E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS SLOWED DOWN AND BEGUN
TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. DURING THE LAST
06 HOURS, TS DOLPHIN HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY AS CONVECTIVE BANDING
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DEEPENED AS EVIDENCED
BY THE COLDER TOPS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER TY 27W WITH THE
CONVECTIVE AREA ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 14.4N 130.3E / NW @ 09 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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