Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) no longer threatens RP... [Update #011]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 16 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #022 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) WEAKENS INTO A CATEGORY ONE TYPHOON AFTER REACHING

CATEGORY TWO LAST NIGHT (165 KPH)...NO LONGER THREATEN THE PHILIPPINES

PARTICULARLY THE BICOL REGION.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora down to Northern Quezon should
closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue heading North to NE

throughout the forecast period and dissipate. The cold-dry air from the

NE Monsoon is expected to continue to affect DOLPHIN's circulation until

its death. The 3 to 4-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning more

NE'ly dissipating into a tropical depression (TD) on Saturday Dec 20

along the the Northeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's large circulation has weakened with the disappearance

of its EYE but its radial outflow remains excellent. 1-day rainfall accu-

mulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with iso-

lated accumulations of up to 250 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) TUE 16 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.9º N...LONGITUDE 130.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 715 KM (385 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 825 KM (445 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 950 KM (513 NM) EAST OF BALER, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 900 KM (485 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 5: 975 KM (527 NM) SE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 775 KM (420 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST TUE DEC 16
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z MON DEC 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 16.5N 130.6E / 160-195 KPH / N @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.4N 130.6E / 150-185 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 19.1N 131.5E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 19.9N 132.7E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER POSITION: 15.5N 130.5E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS MADE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WITH PAST JTWC DVORAKS GOING FROM 3.5 TO 5.0 INDI-
CATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF TY 27W. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
ORGANIZED ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS WITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MICROWAVE EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A RADIAL
EXPANSION OF OUTFLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH NORTHWEST OF TY 27W...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.5N 130.5E / NNW @ 07 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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