Friday, December 12, 2008

TS DOLPHIN heading towards the Philippines... [Update #004]


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004
Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [PRE-ULYSSES/27W/0822] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 12 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #008 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES) GAINING STRENGTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines  from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should 
closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN shall enter the Philippine Area of Respon-
sibility (PAR) tomorrow evening, and is expected to resume its westerly
track for the next 2 days, reaching near-Typhoon strength on Sunday
afternoon with peak 1-min sustained winds of 110 kph. The 3 to 5-day
long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning slightly WNW-ward on Monday
evening Dec 15 and weakening down to 85 or 75 kph. Its center shall
pass more or less 100 km to the North of Catanduanes-Camarines Provinces
area on Tuesday evening Dec 16 til Wednesday morning Dec 17. *Alternate
Forecast Scenario: There's a possibilty that DOLPHIN may track WNW to NW
earlier than forecasted and recurve - sparing the Bicol Region and Cen-
tral Luzon on a close pass by. This scenario is likely possible if the
developing frontal system off SE China digs in and break the high pre-
ssure ridge north of the storm. 

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation continues to improve & expand with the
development of its spiral bands. The system is not yet affecting any
major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to
100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations
of up to 200 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) FRI 12 DEC 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.9º N...LONGITUDE 139.6º
DISTANCE 1: 495 KM (267
NM) EAST OF PAR 
DISTANCE 2: 1,665 KM (900 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,720 KM (928 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,750 KM (945 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 1,770 KM (955 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH 
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL STORM 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
6 PM MANILA TIME FRI DEC 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIESCURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD  
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.0N 138.0E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.1N 135.9E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.8N 132.1E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.8N 128.6E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.6N 140.1E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM (TS) AND SLOWED TO APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS SOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CDO FEATURE WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CDO. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED INFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. ANIMATED WATER IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR BUT IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH
A WEAK POLEWARD CHANNEL DEVELOPING AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUT-
FLOW. AN 112352Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWED INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112033Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND THE
GUAM VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODIFIED THE
SURROUNDING WINDFLOW, WHICH IS NOW FEEDING INTO THE STORM RATHER
THAN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
...
(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK 
   waters, and also a mascot of HK
Name contributed by: 
   
Hong Kong, China.

_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________
 
RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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