Bushman's Typhoon Blog: December 2008

Thursday, December 18, 2008

TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) - Final Update

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #014 **FINAL**

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 18 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #030 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT ACCELERATES

RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EXITS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF

RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

*THIS IS THE FINAL EMAIL STORM UPDATE ON THE PROBABLY LAST TROPICAL

CYCLONE OF 2008.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue weakening and shall

dissipate in 24 to 36 hours.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's weakening circulation continues to become

disorganized and is not affecting any land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) THU 18 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 21.9º N...LONGITUDE 136.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 560 KM (302 NM) SW OF IWO TO
DISTANCE 2: 665 KM (360 NM) SW OF CHICHI JIMA
DISTANCE 3: 1,545 KM (835 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO TO AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 12 PM PST WED DEC 17 (FINAL)
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 22.3N 138.0E / 85-100 KPH / ENE @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.7N 139.9E / 65-85 KPH / EAST @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.8N 141.4E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER POSITION: 21.1N 135.3E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN)
HAS PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENED IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHTENED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERALL CONVECTION HAS SHALLOWED CONSIDERABLY
WITH ALL BUT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE REMAINING,
IN ADDITION TO WEAKENED BANDING...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 20.7N 135.2E / ENE @ 24 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

FINAL T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) - Update #013

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 17 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #026 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) JUST BARELY A TYPHOON AS IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY...HEADING

NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to be downgraded into a tropical

storm today and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

tomorrow morning. The cold-dry air from the NE Monsoon is forecast to

continue entering DOLPHIN's circulation, dissipating the storm in 48 to

72 hours. It shall be just a weak tropical disturbance (LPA) approaching

Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) early Saturday morning (Dec 20).

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation continues to shrink over the NE portion

of the Philippine Sea and is not affecting any land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) WED 17 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 131.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 950 KM (512 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,050 KM (567 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,060 KM (572 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,065 KM (575 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO TO-CHICHI JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST WED DEC 17
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 19.1N 132.3E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 20.5N 133.8E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.4N 137.7E / 55-75 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 DECEMBER: 23.0N 140.6E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER POSITION: 17.8N 131.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WHILE
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
NEAR 160300Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALED A DEVELOPING
EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, HOWEVER THIS HAS
SINCE BECOME UNDISTINGUISHABLE IN AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND THE SYSTEM
NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE WEAKENING TREND WAS ALSO
DISCERNABLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE STRONG BANDING
PREVIOUSLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HOWEVER, HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY FAINT TRACES OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...(more)

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.6N 131.3E / NNE @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic

Messages

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From kitchen basics to easy recipes - join the Group from Kraft Foods

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Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

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Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) - Update #012

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 16 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #024 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TYPHOON DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA...THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES HAS DIMINISHED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue heading North to NNE

for the next 24 to 36 hours. The cold-dry air from the NE Monsoon is

forecast to enter DOLPHIN's circulation - thus weakening the storm until

its death. The 3 to 4-day long-range forecast still shows DOLPHIN turning

more NE'ly as it dissipates over water on Saturday Dec 20 along the the

Northeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation remains at sea and is not affecting any
land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) TUE 16 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.7º N...LONGITUDE 130.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 760 KM (410 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 865 KM (467 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 910 KM (490 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 960 KM (518 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 685 KM (370 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 PM PST TUE DEC 16
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 06Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.3N 130.8E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 07 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 18.1N 131.0E / 150-185 KPH / NNE @ 07 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 19.4N 132.0E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 20.4N 133.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER POSITION: 16.4N 130.6E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE SEEN SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE SYSTEM FROM MAXIMUM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90
KNOTS) TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (85 KNOTS). DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN SSMI AND AMSU IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FORMATION OF
A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM HAS OCCURRED...(more)

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.5N 130.5E / NNW @ 07 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm