Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 31 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #010
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) REACHES CATEGORY TWO STATUS...STILL ON A
PATH TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN...THREATENS SHIKOKU-KYUSHU AREA.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI will remain on a consistent NW'ly PATH TOWARDS SOUTHERN JAPAN...THREATENS SHIKOKU-KYUSHU AREA.
track for the next 2 days in the direction of Southwestern
Japan with forecast wind speeds of 220 km/hr (Cat 4). The
advance 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows USAGI making
landfall over Southwestern Shikoku-Eastern Kyushu early
Friday morning, Aug 3. It shall then traverse Southwestern
Honshu Friday morning, Aug 3. USAGI shall be off the Sea
of Japan Friday evening Aug 3.
+ EFFECTS: USAGI's northern-edge outer bands now affecting
Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Intermittent rains with moderate
to strong winds can be expected along the area. Coastal
Storm Surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
be expected near and to the north of USAGI's projected path.
+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: N/A.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are forecasting a
formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August 4
to 9. During the past 24-hour run of the model forecast (8 AM
& 8 PM Jul 30), it showed the first system forming over the
South China Sea around Aug 4 (Sat), becoming a major Typhoon
before making landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam. Mean-
while, the second system is likely to form sometime Aug 7 or 8
(Tue or Wed) in the area off the Philippine Sea, just to the
East of Bicol Region - then heading northwesterly in the di-
rection of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm or a Ty-
phoon. The second one shows a close proximity to Luzon which
might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and give moderate to heavy
rainfall over the area. If this happens, it will be a big relief
to the dry areas of Luzon particularly over Angat Dam and other
reservoirs. Watch out for more updates on this forecast.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 31 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 21.9º N...LONGITUDE 140.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 335 KM (180 NM) SSW OF IWO TO, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 1,355 KM (732 NM) ESE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 1,925 KM (1,040 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 720 KM (390 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST TUE JULY 31
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 31 JULY: 23.2N 139.5E / 195-240 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 01 AUGUST: 24.7N 137.9E / 215-260 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 28.5N 133.8E / 215-260 KPH / NNW @ 22 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 31 JULY POSITION: 21.4N 140.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND DEVELOPED
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING DURING THAT PERIOD. TY USAGI HAS
TRACKED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING
RIDGE. A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTED A DEVELOPING
EYE. A LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS CONTINUED TO DIG IN OVER JAPAN,
WHICH HAS CREATED A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN, AIDING IN
THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
INFLUENCED A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED TOWARD A WEAK-
NESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...(more info)
>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit).
Name contributed by: Japan.
____________
____________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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