Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MIRINAE (SANTI)

for Sunday, 01 November 2009 [6:03 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sun 01 November 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #026
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) moving west across the South China Sea...may weaken soon.

*Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to track WSW-ward while weakening further...it shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam w/in 24 hours. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Vietnam tomorrow afternoon...dissipating later in the evening. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation continues to lose strength as dry air entrainment from a cold NE surge off China enters the system. This storm is no longer affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 50 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 100 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA] continues to organize across Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 15.8N lon 129.6E...or about 805 km East of Casiguran, Aurora...920 km ENE of Metro Manila...730 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 35 kph near the center...moving West @ 20 kph towards Eastern Luzon. Rains can be expected from this system tomorrow across Eastern Luzon.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sun November 01 2009
Location of Center: 13.8º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (173 nm) NNW of Pagasa Island
Distance 2: 515 km (278 nm) ENE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 800 km (432 nm) WSW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 100 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sun Nov 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Nov 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Sun Nov 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.1N 111.7E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 24 KPH

2 PM (00 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 12.5N 109.1E / 45-65 KPH (TD) / WSW @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 11.9N 106.8E / 30-45 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 01 NOVEMBER POSITION: 13.7N 114.2E.
*A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS
BEGUN TO FLARE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD, AND A 312339Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE,
INDICATE A 35 TO 45 KNOT SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTH OF WEST WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER/COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEVELOPING COLD SURGE. LANDFALL WITH VIETNAM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
NEAR TAU 24. AFTER WHICH, THE LLCC WILL QUICKLY DEGRADE OVER LAND
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 (JUST TO THE NORTH OF HO CHI MINH)...(more)

>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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