Monday, November 23, 2009

TD 26W (UNNAMED) - Update #003

 


for Monday, 23 November 2009 [6:35 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD 26W (UNNAMED).


26W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 23 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #004 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 26W (UNNAMED) quasi-stationary SE of Guam...may threaten Southern Marianas in the coming days.

    *Residents and visitors along the Marianas and Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 26W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    Current Storm Information


    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon November 23 2009
    Location of Center: 7.7º N Lat 148.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 725 km (392 nm) SSE of Guam, CNMI
    Distance 2: 1,115 km (602 nm) ESE of Yap, FSM
    Distance 3: 2,360 km (1,275 nm) East of Mindanao, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
    Towards: Southern Marianas
    Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Mon Nov 23

    + Forecast Outlook: 26W is expected to continue moving NW for the next 24 hours and intensify into a tropical storm. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system maintaining its NW path as it strengthens to a 100-kph storm early Wednesday morning [2am Nov 25: 10.1N 144.2E]. 26W will become a Category 1 Typhoon early Thursday morning...passing about 350 km WSW of Guam [2am Nov 26: 12.4N 141.8E]...and turning more NNW by early Friday morning [2am Nov 27: 14.9N 140.0E] while about 550 km WNW of Guam. 26W will reach Category 2 status by early Saturday morning [2am Nov 28: 17.7N 138.6E] with forecast wind speeds of 165 kph...about 800 km NW of Guam. Based on this forecast, this system remains not a threat to the Philippines. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: 26W is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA)
    strengthening as it continues to remain quasi-stationary over the Southern Philippine Sea...currently located
    near lat 8.8N lon 127.7E...or about 260 km ESE of Surigao City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 40 kph near the center. This system is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12-24 hours. Watch out for a separate e-mail updates on this disturbance once it becomes a Tropical Cyclone.

    Kindly click the
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TD 26W (Unnamed)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 23 NOVEMBER: 7.9N 147.3E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NW @ 09 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 8.5N 146.4E / 85-100 KPH (TS) / NW @ 11 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 10.1N 144.2E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 12.4N 141.8E / 120-150 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NW @ 15 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 23 NOVEMBER POSITION: 7.5N 147.9E.

    *ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED AND SUBSIDED, THE BANDS HAVE
    BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
    A LATEST AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING A HOOK FEATURE OVER THE LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
    ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT HAS MIGRATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES
    FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS HAS REDUCED THE VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR ALOFT, ALLOWING TD 26W TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THIS MARGINAL
    GAIN WAS OFFSET BY THE REDUCED OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TD 26W IS
    EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST.
    THE STEERING MECHANISM IS PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS -
    LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    - WILL ENHANCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM PEAKING AS A
    STRONG TYPHOON BY 120 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN
    OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST...
    (
    more)


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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 26W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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