Sunday, November 29, 2009

NIDA (26W) downgraded to a Typhoon... [Update #022]

 


for Sunday, 29 November 2009 [1:16 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 230 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 kph

TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sun 29 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #029 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • NIDA (26W) downgraded to a Typhoon...still at Category 4...still barely moving.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sun Nov 29 2009
    Location of Eye: 19.4º N Lat 139.3º E Lon
    Distance 1: 635 km (343 nm) SSW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 450 km (240 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,790 km (965 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    230 kph (125 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph (150 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 250 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
    Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
    Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft (11.2 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 13-18 feet [4.0-5.5 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    8 AM PST Sun Nov 29

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to drift very slowly northward and will start decaying within the next 2 days. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Tropical Storm as strong upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) affects the system on Wednesday morning (8AM Dec 02: 22.3N 140.3E)...about 295 km SSW of Iwo To. NIDA will continue to rapidly decay - turning more to the West slowly and dissipate to the SW of Iwo To beginning Thursday until Friday (8AM Dec 03: 22.8N 140.2E...8AM Dec 4: 22.5N 139.5E). There are still some models that forecast the soon-to-be-dissipating system tracking West to WSW into the Philippine Sea due to the strong surge of NE Monsoon (Amihan) approaching from China. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA is not affecting any major islands at this time. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (heavy rain) near the center or EyeWall of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny, clear to cloudy skies with possible passing rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN LUZON. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected on these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for TY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
     
  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 19.7N 139.6E / 215-260 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / N @ 05 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 20.2N 139.7E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NNE @ 05 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 30 NOVEMBER: 21.6N 140.1E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / NNE @ 04 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 01 DECEMBER: 22.3N 140.3E / 95-120 KPH (TS) / N @ 02 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 29 NOVEMBER POSITION: 19.3N 139.5E.

    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A  MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
    SLIGHT EROSION OF CORE CONVECTION OVER THE EAST QUADRANT WITH AN
    EXPANDING, ROUND 50NM DIAMETER EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL
    INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
    HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 115 TO 127 KNOTS FROM
    PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE MOST RECENT 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POLEWARD-
    ORIENTED, MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM
    WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF 22N; TY 26W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
    RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE EASTERN, DOMINANT
    STR AND THE WESTERN STR, WHICH EXTENDS FROM HAINAN EASTWARD TO ABOUT
    130E. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS HIGH ZONAL ACROSS ASIA WITH NO
    SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN THE UPSTREAM
    FLOW (IN IMAGERY AS WELL). THE 28/21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD
    HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS ASIA EXTENDING EASTWARD TO 150E; THIS HIGH HAS
    BUILT EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF TY
    26W. THE LATEST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS INDICATE A STRONG
    SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH THE RIDGING NORTH OF THE
    SYSTEM AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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