Saturday, November 28, 2009

Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) regains Category 5 status... [Update #018]

 


for Saturday, 28 November 2009 [7:10 AM PST]

click to get RSS data
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to

2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu November 26 2009):

We would like to inform our constant viewers of this website, that the T2K StormTrack (activetrack.gif) will only be created once the system poses a threat to the Philippines or is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on STY NIDA (27W).


NIDA (26W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 280 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 kph

SUPER TYPHOON NIDA [26W/0922]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 28 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #024 & SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Super Typhoon NIDA (26W) has regained Category 5 strength due to improved eye appearance (45-km. in diameter) and much stronger eyewall convection...crawling towards the North.

    *Residents and visitors along the Iwo To and Chichi Jima Islands should closely monitor the progress of NIDA.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat Nov 28 2009
    Location of Eye: 19.0º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 685 km (370 nm) SSW of Iwo To
    Distance 2: 430 km (232 nm) East of P.A.R.
    Distance 3: 1,770 km (955 nm) ENE of Extreme N.Luzon, PH
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    280 kph (150 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 335 kph (180 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 911 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
    Present Movement: North @ 07 kph (04 kts)
    Towards: Iwo To-Chichi Jima Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft (10.3 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: >18 feet [>5.5 m]
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public):
    2 AM PST Sat Nov 28

    + Forecast Outlook: NIDA is expected to continue on its slow northward track and will start weakening while beginning recurvature within the next 2 days...passing south of Iwo To by early Monday morning (2AM Nov 30: 22.3N 141.7E). The 3 to 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded to a Tropical Storm and will begin to enter the mid-latitude westerly windflow (westerlies) & accelerate towards the ENE by early Tuesday morning (2AM Dec 01: 24.9N 145.3E)...about 405 km SE of Chichi Jima Island. NIDA will continue to move faster ENE-ward across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and become Extratropical early Wednesday morning (2AM Dec 02: 28.4N 152.6E). Based on this forecast, this system will no longer enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): The latest UKMO, JGSM, GFS, and ECMWF Extended Forecasts issued at 8PM last night (Nov 27), predicts NIDA to turn towards the left into the Philippine Sea - on a West to SW track due to an approaching surge of NE Monsoon from the strong High Pressure Area off SE China. This scenario is possible in the coming days. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: NIDA is now over open seas...not affecting any major islands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 230 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Nida. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

    + Current NE Monsoon Intensity: LIGHT >> Sunny, clear to cloudy skies with passing rains, squalls (subasko) can be expected along the following affected areas: EASTERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, QUEZON, MASBATE, & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Light to moderate northeasterly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected on these areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    External Links for STY NIDA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp2609.gif
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4-days Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 28 NOVEMBER: 19.5N 139.1E / 260-315 KPH (STY-Cat 5) / NNE @ 07 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 29 NOVEMBER: 20.3N 139.5E / 230-280 KPH (TY-Cat 4) / NE @ 13 KPH 
    2 AM (18 GMT) 30 NOVEMBER: 22.3N 141.7E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / NE @ 19 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 DECEMBER: 24.9N 145.3E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / ENE @ 35 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 28 NOVEMBER POSITION: 18.7N 139.0E.

    *ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE
    SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS WITH A 25 NM EYE AND
    IMPROVED EYEWALL CONVECTION. A 271700Z AMSU IMAGE CONTINUES TO
    INDICATE THAT STY 26W IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.
    SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
    SYSTEM HAS SLOWED FORWARD MOTION TO 04 KNOTS WITH TROCHOIDAL MOTION;
    STY 26W IS STILL TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
    IS BASED ON THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 140 (RJTD) TO 155
    KNOTS (PGTW). CURRENT ANALYSIS OF 700/500MB DATA SUPPORTS A SLOW
    NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
    WITH ZONAL MIDALTITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 25N. BASED ON THIS
    ANALYSIS AND THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION, THE TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
    DECREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
    NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AND TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
    (ETT) NEAR 72 HOURS. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED AT TAU 72/96 TO
    REFLECT DE-COUPLING DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
    EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH JGSM,
    ECMWF, UKMO AND GFS INDICATING RAPID WEAKENING AND A SUBSEQUENT
    TRACK WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES
    WHILE NOGAPS AND GFDN SUPPORT A RAPID ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD.
    THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE RE-CURVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THERE
    ARE INDICATORS IN THE MAJORITY OF MODELS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN
    RAPIDLY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS DUE PRIMARILY TO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
    RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD COMBINED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY
    FLOW, WHICH MAY PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM COMPLETING ITS ETT AND LEAD
    TO A DISSIPATION SCENARIO...
    (
    more)

    >> NIDA, meaning: Name of womanName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
      
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on STY NIDA (26W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com     All Rights Reserved

    __._,_.___
    .

    __,_._,___

    No comments: