Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD TINO (24W)

for Tuesday, 03 November 2009 [10:25 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue November 03 2009):

Yesterday, Typhoon2000.com celebrated its 12th year Anniversary...Thank you for all your support. Meanwhile, T2K is currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD TINO (24W), which may threaten Eastern & Central Luzon.

TINO (24W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 kph

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINO [24W]
T2K INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005A
8:00 AM PST (00:00 GMT) Tue 03 November 2009
Sources: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #02
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

The low-level circulation center (45-kph winds w/ light rains) of Tropical Depression TINO (24W) has accelerated Southward and weakened...now along the northern shores of Camarines Sur (Caramoan-Garchitorena-Siruma). Its mid-level (rain) circulation was left behind near the east coast of Aurora. Strong winds (not exceeding 70 kph) associated with the cold surge of NE Monsoon w/ light rains affecting the Camarines Provinces and Southern Quezon.

*Residents and visitors along Southern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of TINO (24W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: TINO is expected to continue moving SW within the next 12 to 24 hours. The 24-hr Short-Range Forecast shows the system crossing Camarines Sur today as a dissipating system and will be near Romblon tonight. Complete dissipation of this depression expected tomorrow morning off Sulu Sea. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: TINO's circulation remains small and compact. This system is encountering increasing shear and a surge of strong NE Monsoon which is bringing cool and dry air into its circulation. Light rains w/ strong winds not exceeding 60 kph can be expected today across Northern Bicol Region and Southern Quezon. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 25 mm (light rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 50 mm (moderate rain) near the center of TINO. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Quezon, Northern Visayas and Aurora. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current NE Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong northeasterly winds not in excess of 70 kph with occasional widespread showers, rains, squalls (subasko) and low temperatures can be expected along the following affected areas: BATANES GROUP, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON including METRO MANILA, BICOL REGION & NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PST Tue November 03 2009
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 35 km (20 nm) NW of Gota Beach, Caramoan
Distance 2: 25 km (13 nm) NE of Garchitorena, Cam Sur
Distance 3: 40 km (22 nm) East of Siruma, Cam Sur
Distance 4: 75 km (40 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 85 km (45 nm) East of Daet, Cam Norte
Distance 6: 285 km (153 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Click to view: TINO's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 50 mm.
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: SSW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Camarines Provinces
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap #04 (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Nov 03
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 8 AM Tue Nov 03
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ISABELA, MOUNTAIN PROVINCE, IFUGAO, BENGUET, NUEVA VIZCAYA, QUIRINO, LA UNION, PANGASINAN, NUEVA ECIJA, & AURORA.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 55 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

JTWC 12 & 24 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

8 PM (12 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 12.3N 122.6E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / SW @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 04 NOVEMBER: 11.1N 121.2E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / ...
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 03 NOVEMBER: 17.0N 123.5E / WSW @ 11 kph / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): N/A

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD TINO (24W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm