Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MIRINAE (SANTI)

for Sunday, 01 October 2009 [5:27 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun November 01 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MIRINAE (SANTI).

MIRINAE (SANTI) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 kph

TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE [SANTI/23W/0921]
T2K ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 01 November 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX & WARNING #024
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MIRINAE (SANTI) weakens as strong NE cold surge off China brings dry air into its circulation...will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today...All Philippine Storm Signals are now lowered by PAGASA.

*Residents and visitors along Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of MIRINAE (SANTI).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MIRINAE is expected to continue tracking westward as it weakens further...it shall be approaching the coast of Vietnam in 24 hours. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making landfall over Vietnam tomorrow morning...dissipating later in the afternoon. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects: MIRINAE's radial circulation continues to lose strength as dry air entrainment from a cold NE surge off China enters the system. This storm is no longer affecting any land areas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 80 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner bands...with isolated amounts of 125 mm (heavy rain) near the center of Mirinae. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

Tropical Disturbance 97W [LPA] a new one over the Philippine Sea east of Luzon is slowly organizing...currently located near lat 15.5N lon 131.8E...or about 845 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes...1,155 km East of Metro Manila ...950 km ENE of Naga City. It has 1-min. windspeeds of 30 kph near the center...moving westward slowly.

Kindly click the T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun November 01 2009
Location of Center: 14.2º N Lat 115.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 510 km (275 nm) WSW of Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 2: 575 km (310 nm) WNW of Puerto Galera
Distance 3: 595 km (322 nm) West of Metro Manila
Distance 4: 820 km (443 nm) ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Click to view: Mirinae's Latest Wind Analysis new!
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 125 mm
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Area of Impact: Vietnam
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
T2K Final TrackMap #08 (for Public): 6 AM PST Sun Nov 01
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Nov 01
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun Nov 01
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1-day Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 13.8N 113.5E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / W @ 24 KPH

2 AM (00 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 13.3N 110.9E / 75-95 KPH (TS) / WSW @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 NOVEMBER: 12.6N 108.2E / 35-55 KPH (LPA) / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 02 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.1N 116.2E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MIRINAE. A 311059Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MAINTAINED A
SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE WITH UNFLAGGED 45 KNOT WINDS PRESENT. THE
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE FROM THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO READILY
APPARENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF TS 23W, AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING THE LLCC WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
TOWARDS CENTRAL VIETNAM, STEADILY WEAKENING. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND TAU 30 WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 36...(more)

>> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 01 NOVEMBER: 14.0N 116.4E / WEST @ 22 kph / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP): NEW!!!

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=TWENTYTHRE)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS MIRINAE (SANTI)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm