Tuesday, November 24, 2009

TD URDUJA (27W) - Update #004

 


for Tuesday, 24 November 2009 [1:31 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon November 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly Advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TD URDUJA (27W). Meanwhile, our SMS Updates for SMART (216) is currently OFFLINE due to technical problems. Synermaxx and SMART engineers are now fixing the problem which started a few days ago. Please bear with us.


URDUJA (27W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION URDUJA [27W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 24 November 2009
Source: T2K Analysis & JTWC Warning #03/SatFix
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression URDUJA (27W) has been relocated to the east, with its mid-level rainband circulation now over Central Visayas.

    *Residents and visitors along Eastern and Central Visayas should closely monitor the progress of URDUJA.

    *Do not use this for life/death decision. Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue November 24 2009
    Location of Center: 10.0º N Lat 127.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) ENE of Surigao City
    Distance 2: 255 km (137 nm) SE of Tacloban City
    Distance 3: 285 km (155 nm) ESE of Ormoc City
    Distance 4: 340 km (183 nm) ESE of Cebu City
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm
    Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
    Present Movement: NW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
    Towards: Philippine Sea
    Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    T2K TrackMap #03 (for Public):
    12 PM PST Tue Nov 24

    + Forecast Outlook: URDUJA is expected to slow down and will remain quasi-stationary for the next 12 to 24 hours as it interacts to the much stronger TS NIDA (26W), located South of Guam. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system will undergo a counter-clockwise loop passing very near the Northeastern Coast of Mindanao tomorrow morning (8AM Nov 25: 9.1N 126.7E)..and will become a minimal Tropical Storm on Thursday morning (8AM Nov 26: 8.6N 127.8E) as it moves eastward into the Southern Philippine Sea. URDUJA will start tracking NE-ward towards NIDA (26W) starting Friday until Sunday (8AM Nov 27: 9.0N 128.6E...8AM Nov 28: 10.0N 129.6E) and strengthen into a 85-kph tropical storm on Sunday (8AM Nov 29: 11.1N 130.8E). This forecast outlook remains poor in predicting the future path of URDUJA...various computer guidance model are having a hard time positioning this system. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: URDUJA's rainbands has been sheared to the west and continues to dump scattered to widespread rains across Northern Mindanao and the whole of the Visayas. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 2 up to 75 mm (light to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer bands...with isolated amounts of 250 mm (very heavy to extreme rain) off its inner bands especially over the islands of Leyte, Bohol, Cebu and Negros. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    In Effect: MASBATE, ROMBLON, EASTERN SAMAR, WESTERN SAMAR, BILIRAN, LEYTE, CEBU, CAMOTES IS., BOHOL, NEGROS, AKLAN, CAPIZ, ANTIQUE, ILOILO, GUIMARAS, BORACAY, CAMIGUIN, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, SURIGAO PROVINCES, DINAGAT AND SIARGAO ISLANDS.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 55 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living along river banks, low-lying and mountainous areas which are under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    External Links for TD URDUJA (27W)

    View NOAA-CIRA's
    Latest Wind Analysis
    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart:
    wp9309.gif
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time

  • JTWC (US NAVY / AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 9.5N 126.7E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / S @ 04 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 25 NOVEMBER: 9.1N 126.7E / 55-75 KPH (TD) / SSE @ 05 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 26 NOVEMBER: 8.6N 127.8E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / ENE @ 04 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 27 NOVEMBER: 9.0N 128.6E / 65-85 KPH (TS) / NE @ 07 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 24 NOVEMBER POSITION: 9.7N 127.1E.
    *TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
    APPROXIMATELY 55 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MINDINAO, HAS TRACKED
    NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
    MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 50 NM TO THE
    NORTH. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH POSITIONING AND
    MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-35
    KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER
    THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW...
    (
    more)

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    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 24 NOVEMBER: 10.6N 124.9E / WNW Slowly / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6-12 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):


    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=27W)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD URDUJA (27W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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