Sunday, June 21, 2009

Typhoon LINFA (03W) - Update #011




for Sunday, 21 June 2009 [7:15 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TY LINFA (03W)


LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TYPHOON LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sun 21 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #015 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION
  • Typhoon LINFA (03W) has reached its peak intensity of 140 kph last night, now waning down as it approaches the coast of Fujian, China...Rain bands now spreading across Western Taiwan and Southeastern China.

    *Residents and visitors along Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to continue moving NNE for the next 24 hours before turning to the NE. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA weakening into a Tropical Storm as it passes over Taiwan Strait or very near the coast of Fujian by early tomorrow morning, June 22. It shall further accelerate across the southern portion of the East China Sea on Tuesday, June 23, before zooming across the NW Pacific or to the south of Kyuhsu, Shikoku and Honshu in Japan on Wednesday & Thursday (June 24-25). LINFA is expected to become Extratropical on Thursday or Friday (June 25-26).

    + Effects: LINFA's eye and eyewall remains at sea. However, its outer (rain) bands has begun spreading across the SW part of Taiwan and the coastal areas of Eastern Guangdong up to Fujian Province. Increasing winds of up to 60 kph with light to moderate rains can be expected along these bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected along SE China and Western Taiwan later today as the typhoon approaches.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) continues to drift across Micronesia, approaching Yap & Ulithi Islands...located near lat 9.0N lon 139.5E...or about 165 km ESE of Yap Island...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving Westward slowly.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sun June 21 2009
    Location of Center: 22.4º N Lat 118.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) SE of Shantou, China
    Distance 2: 235 km (127 nm) South of Xiamen, China
    Distance 3: 225 km (122 nm) West of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Distance 4: 400 km (215 nm) West of Hong Kong
    Distance 5: 445 km (240 nm) NW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    130 kph (70 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NNE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    General Direction: Fujian-Taiwan Strait Area
    Size (in Diameter): 480 km (260 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sun June 21
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Sat June 20
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sun June 21
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 23.5N 118.7E / 120-150 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 24.9N 119.6E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE: 28.3N 123.6E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 20 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 24 JUNE: 30.0N 128.2E / 55-75 KPH / ENE @ 26 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE POSITION: 22.0N 118.0E.
    ^TYPHOON (TY) 03W (LINFA) HAS MAINTAINED TYPHOON INTENSITY
    OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE SMALL RAGGED EYE THAT WAS APPARENT
    EARLIER HAS SINCE FILLED AND THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF
    THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO DETRERIORATE AS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR INCREASED
    TO 30 KNOTS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP
    CONVECTION HAS REDUCED TO THE EAST THROUGH SOUTH QUADRANTS OF THE
    SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, THE TYPHOON HAS CLOSED IN ON THE UPPER LEVEL
    LOW TO THE NORTH, INHIBITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
    IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP
    FROM RCCG WITH A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
    ...(
    more)

    >> LINFA, meaning: LotusName contributed by: Macau.

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.3N 118.2E / NNE @ 13 kph / 95 kph [Outside PAR]

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTES:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
     
      * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
          signals, visit:
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

     ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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