Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (03W) enters PAR...threatens Extreme Northern Luzon [Update #004]

for Friday, 19 June 2009 [7:41 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TS LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Fri 19 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #007 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm LINFA (03W) drfting slowly ESE to Eastward over the South China Sea, as it remains in an area of weak steering flow...now enters the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR)...may threaten Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: The overall forecast track has changed...now shows a track close to scenario #2. LINFA is now expected to drift slowly towards the NE to NNE-ward. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA reaching its peak winds of just 85 kph, passing to the North Batanes Group of Islands on Sunday evening, June 21st - making landfall over Southern Taiwan. It shall then transition into an Extratropical Cyclone as it passes south of Southern Japan on Wednesday morning, June 24th.

+ Effects: LINFA's circulation has been wobbling over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA has slightly weaken, but continues to affect Luzon...becoming more intense along the western parts including Metro Manila & Mindoro. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...has dissipated.

(2) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) newly spotted off Micronesia near the Island of Chuuk...located near lat 7.7N lon 151.2E...about 945 km SE of Hagatna, Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving West slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Fri June 19 2009
Location of Center: 17.5º N Lat 117.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km (185 nm) West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) WSW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 605 km (327 nm) SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 610 km (330 nm) SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: East @ 05 kph (03 kt)
General Direction: Batanes-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Fri June 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Thu June 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Fri June 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE: 17.9N 117.3E / 75-95 KPH / NNE @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.0N 117.7E / 85-100 KPH / NNE @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 21.1N 119.2E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 23.4N 121.6E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 17.4N 116.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) LINFA [03W] HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY AT 40 KTS AS
IS EVIDENCED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND A 181112Z QUIKSCAT
PASS. A WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE HAS
REMAINED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TS 03W
CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE CONFLICTING INFLUENCES OF A LOW-LEVEL ANTI-
CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY...(more)

>> LINFA, meaning: Lotus. Name contributed by: Macau.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE: 17.5N 116.3E / QUASI-STATIONARY / 65 kph (Outside PAR)

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm