Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NANGKA (FERIA) nearing landfall... [Update #015]

for Friday, 26 June 2009 [5:59 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri June 26 2009):

Just added T2K ADVISORY ARCHIVES link, located just below the T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY header.

NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 26 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #016 / T2K ANALYSIS
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) approaching the coast of Guangdong Province with little convection...Landfall just hours away.

*Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: NANGKA is expected to make landfall tonight or around midnight over Guangdong Province, approximately 100 km. west of Hong Kong. After its landfall, NANGKA shall recurve to the North or NNE and dissipate along the rugged terrain of Eastern Guangdong tomorrow evening or early Sunday, June 28.

+ Effects: NANGKA's circulation remains fully-exposed with most of its thick rain-cloud convection sheared-off to the south and SW of the center. The moderate vertical wind shear (upper level winds) over the South China Sea remains one of the inhibiting factors on NANGKA's poor development. Its sheared rain bands is expected to reach Guangdong Province tomorrow. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri June 26 2009
Location of Center: 21.8º N Lat 115.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 110 km (60 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 235 km (127 nm) SW of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 720 km (390 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
General Direction: Southern China
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Fri June 26
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Fri June 26
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri June 26
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 27 JUNE: 22.9N 115.1E / 65-85 KPH / N @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 27 JUNE: 24.5N 115.2E / 45-65 KPH / NNE @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 28 JUNE: 25.5N 115.7E / 45-65 KPH / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 26 JUNE POSITION: 20.8N 115.6E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) EAST OF LUZON. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST 12 HOURS WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS THE PRIMARY
LIMITING CAUSE. INTENSITY IS BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND
RJTD. A 252140Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTION ONLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF AN INCREASINGLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)...(more)

>> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruit. Name contributed by: Malaysia.

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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