Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Tropical Storm (TS) 03W (UNNAMED)

for Thursday, 18 June 2009 [7:15 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed June 17 2009):

There will be no 12AM updates for active tropical cyclones when it is not yet a threat to any landmass. Updates will only be issued at 6AM, 12PM and 6PM respectively. However, the links into various typhoon agencies except T2K are 100% updated. The reason for this is that I also need to rest and have some sleep. Please bear with me.

03W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 03W (UNNAMED)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 18 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #003 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

03W (UNNAMED) becomes a Tropical Storm as it barely moves over the South China Sea...may threaten Extreme Northwestern Luzon including Batanes-Calayan Group of Islands this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 03W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 03W is expected to remain quasi-stationary & drift ENE w/in the next 24 hours, reaching its peak strength of 85 kph tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 03W maintaining its intensity as it accelerates towards the ENE to NE, passing over the Batanes and Calayan Group of Islands, in between Luzon & Taiwan by early Sunday morning, June 20th. It shall then weaken into a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands early Tuesday morning, June 23rd.

+ Effects: 03W's main circulation is somewhat small but continues to develop and remains along the South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by 03W continues to affect the whole of Luzon and Visayas including the Bicol Region...becoming more intense along the western parts including Metro Manila. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...consolidating slowly...located near lat 19.0N lon 125.2E...about 350 km East of Aparri, Cagayan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving north slowly during the past 12 hours. Light to moderate to sometimes heavy rainfall associated with its western outerbands can be expected along the NE coast of Cagayan.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu June 18 2009
Location of Center: 18.0º N Lat 116.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km (240 nm) WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 465 km (250 nm) West of Laoag City
Distance 3: 520 km (280 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 655 km (355 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Thu June 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Thu June 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JUNE: 18.4N 116.5E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 04 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.6N 116.9E / 75-95 KPH / ENE @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.5N 119.1E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 20.8N 121.3E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 JUNE POSITION: 18.2N 116.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W ENTERED WARNING STATUS AT 170600Z.
THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH CONSOLIDATION AND
INTENSIFICATION ARE SLOWLY TAKING PLACE. THE SYSTEM WAS RELOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION
BASED ON MORE RECENTLY AVAILABLE ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171032Z SSMI IMAGE SHOW
CONSOLIDATION OCCURRING UNDER THE CENTRAL OVERCAST...(more)

>> CHAN-HOM, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Lao PDR.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (20 GMT) 18 JUNE: XX.XN XXX.XE / XXX @ XX KPH / XX kph - NO DATA

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 03W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm