Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon LINFA (03W) endangers Fujian-Taiwan Strait... [Update #008]

for Saturday, 20 June 2009 [1:10 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TY LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TYPHOON LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 20 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #012 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

LINFA (03W) becomes the 3rd Typhoon of the 2009 Season...11AM satellite analysis, reveals a newly-formed ragged Eye - using Dvorak Classification Technique T-number of 4.5 to justify the upgrading of this system...now increases its threat to Fujian Province of China and the Strait of Taiwan.

*Residents and visitors along Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to accelerate North to NNE for the next 2 days and shall reach its peak strength later tonight before it weakens slowly. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA passing in between Fujian Province and Taiwan or across the Strait of Taiwan tomorrow morning, June 21. It shall further accelerate across the East China Sea on Monday June 22, before zooming across the NW Pacific or to the south of Kyuhsu, Shikoku and Honshu in Japan on Wednesday & Thursday (June 23-24). LINFA is expected to become Extratropical on Thursday or Friday (June 24-25).

+ Effects: LINFA's circulation remains over the northern part of South China Sea. However, its Northern Outer bands is likely to reach the Western part of Taiwan and the coastal areas of Fujian Province of China later tonight. Increasing winds of up to 60 kph with light to moderate rains can be expected along these bands. Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected along SE China and Western Taiwan tomorrow as the typhoon approaches.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA is affecting Northwestern Luzon...becoming more intense along Ilocos Provinces. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) remains drifting across Micronesia to the south of Guam...located near lat 8.9N lon 146.8E...or about 545 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving WNW slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat June 20 2009
Location of Center: 20.6º N Lat 117.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 370 km (200 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 315 km (170 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 435 km (235 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 380 km (205 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 490 km (265 nm) West of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
General Direction: Fujian-Taiwan Strait Area
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sat June 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Sat June 20
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat June 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 20 JUNE: 21.3N 117.6E / 120-150 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.7N 118.3E / 110-140 KPH / NNE @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 22 JUNE: 25.6N 120.3E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 23 JUNE: 28.0N 124.4E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 30 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 20 JUNE POSITION: 20.2N 117.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) HAS SLOWLY INCREASED ITS
INTENSITY TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES ALONG WITH A
192126Z 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH AN OUTFLOW
CHANNEL THAT IS ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE TS
THAT HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. TS 03W HAS
STEADILY DRIFTED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST...(more)

>> LINFA, meaning: Lotus. Name contributed by: Macau.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.8N 116.9E / NNE @ 11 kph / 95 kph [Outside PAR]

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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