Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (03W)

for Thursday, 18 June 2009 [6:55 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TS LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 18 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #005 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm 03W is now internationally known as LINFA...almost stationary over the South China Sea, just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...may affect Extreme Northern Luzon this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Abra, Northern Cagayan, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Southern Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to remain quasi-stationary w/in the next 6 hours before starting to drift ENE to NE-ward, entering PAR tomorrow afternoon. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA reaching its peak winds of 95 kph, passing very close to the Batanes and Calayan Group of Islands by late Saturday evening, June 20th. It shall then weaken into a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands by early Tuesday morning, June 23rd. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that LINFA shall track more to the North and pass along Taiwan Strait. This scenario remains poor at this time.

+ Effects: LINFA's main circulation continues to improve & remains over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA continues to affect Luzon...becoming more intense along the western parts including Metro Manila & Mindoro. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 90W (LPA) currently east of Extreme Northern Luzon...has been relocated near lat 18.9N lon 124.9E...about 340 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...currently moving North slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu June 18 2009
Location of Center: 17.6º N Lat 116.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 465 km (250 nm) West of Vigan City
Distance 2: 490 km (265 nm) WSW of Laoag City
Distance 3: 545 km (295 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 695 km (375 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WSW @ 02 kph (01 kt)
General Direction: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Thu June 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Thu June 18
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Thu June 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JUNE: 17.9N 116.7E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.4N 117.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 20.2N 120.0E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.1N 122.6E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JUNE POSITION: 17.8N 116.4E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W HAS INTENSIFIED TO 40 KTS AS IS EVIDENT
FROM A 17/2233Z QUIKSCAT PASS. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, A WELL
DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TS 03W IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY...(more)
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JUNE: 17.6N 116.3E / QUASI-STATIONARY / 65 kph (Outside PAR)

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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