Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (FERIA) now a Tropical Storm (TS)...[Update #004]

for Tuesday, 23 June 2009 [1:15 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon June 22 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories on Tropical Depression 04W as it heads towards Samar-Bicol Area...Storm Warning Signal #2 now raised over parts of Visayas & Southern Bicol.

04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM 04W (FERIA)
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Tue 23 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #003 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

04W (FERIA) has reached Tropical Storm threshold as it moves closer to the coast of Southeastern Samar.

*Residents and visitors along Visayas and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of 04W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 04W shall start to turn more WNW and slowly intensify as it traverses the Visayas. The 2-day Medium Range Forecast shows 04W making landfall over Samar-Leyte this afternoon and cross either Masbate or Sorsogon early tomorrow morning (around 2 AM) with forecast winds of 85-95 kph.

+ Effects: 04W's circulation is now affecting the Visayas and Bicol Region. Heavy Rainbands continue to spread across Samar, Leyte, Rest of Visayas, Bicol Region and Northern Mindanao...Winds of up to 65 kph with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along these bands. Rain bands may reach Southern Quezon later tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the disturbance's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area today. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Tue June 23 2009
Location of Center: 11.1º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) ESE of Borongan, E.Samar
Distance 2: 140 km (75 nm) East of Tacloban City
Distance 3: 320 km (173 nm) ESE of Masbate
Distance 4: 385 km (207 nm) ESE of Roxas City
Distance 5: 360 km (195 nm) SE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 405 km (220 nm) SE of Gota Beach
Distance 7: 435 km (235 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
General Direction: Samar-Leyte Area
Size (in Diameter): 350 km (190 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Tue June 23
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Tue June 23
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: MASBATE, TICAO, SORSOGON, ALBAY, SAMAR & LEYTE PROVINCES, BILIRAN ISLAND.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds of up to 85 kph for #02). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, SOUTHERN QUEZON, CATANDUANES, BURIAS ISLAND, ROMBLON, MARINDUQUE, SOUTHERN LEYTE, CAMOTES IS., CEBU, BOHOL, NORTHERN NEGROS, CAPIZ, ILOILO, AKLAN, DINAGAT IS., SIARGAO, SURIGAO DEL NORTE, CAMIGUIN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 23 JUNE: 11.7N 124.7E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 24 JUNE: 12.6N 122.7E / 95-120 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 25 JUNE: 15.2N 119.6E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 26 JUNE: 19.2N 119.4E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 23 JUNE POSITION: 11.1N 126.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (FOUR) CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE WEST
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH
OF TS 04W. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS SEEN A DECREASE IN
THE TRACK SPEED AS IT HAS APPROACHED THE PHILIPPINES, WITH A FURTHER
REDUCTION IN TRACK SPEED EXPECTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) HAS
CONTINUED TO BUILD TO THE WEST, CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WARNING NR 03 IS THE FIRST WARNING AS A
TROPICAL STORM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 23 JUNE: 11.3N 126.4E / WNW @ 22 kph / 65 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS 04W (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm