Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NANGKA (FERIA) may spare Metro Manila tonight...now over Batangas Coast...[Update #008]

for Wednesday, 24 June 2009 [7:41 PM PST]

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 3-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on FERIA!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed June 24 2009):

T2K 6PM Track Chart just loaded...the 3-hrly SMS updates & 6-hrly web advisories on TS NANGKA (FERIA) continues.

NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 25 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #008 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) has weakened slightly after crossing the rugged terrain of Northern Mindoro this afternoon, and passing very close to Puerto Galera...now off the NW coast of Mindoro. Its small core or the non-eye area known as Central-Dense overcast (CD0) continues to lash Northwestern Mindoro and Batangas...threat to Metro Manila and Cavite still persist through the night.

*Residents and visitors along Southern Tagalog Provinces, Mindoro, Metro Manila and SW Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: NANGKA is expected to turn NW and pass near the coasts of Batangas-Cavite-Bataan tonight...and shall slightly intensify. It shall be near the west coast of Zambales and Pangasinan by tomorrow. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows NANGKA turning more to the NNW across the South China Sea on Thursday evening, June 25 thru Friday, June 26. It shall reach its peak forecast winds of 100 kph by then. NANGKA shall start to recurve towards the NNE on Saturday June 27 and shall pass across Taiwan Strait as a weakening system on Saturday evening. It shall be over the East China Sea, near the coast of Eastern China on Sunday afternoon, June 28th.

+ Effects: NANGKA's main core remains small and is currently affecting Batangas, Lubang Is. and Northern Mindoro and might affect Cavite and Bataan later tonight. Its inner bands continue to spread across the rest of Mindoro, Laguna, and shall reach Metro Manila later tonight...Winds of up to 95 kph with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands especially along the core or central-dense overcast (CDO) of the system. Meanwhile, outer bands of NANGKA continues to affect parts of Central Luzon, Southern Quezon, Western Bicol, parts of Northern Visayas and the Calamian Group of Islands. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. Improving weather can be expected across the rest of Bicol Peninsula and Rest of Visayas as the storm moves farther away. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by NANGKA is affecting Palawan, Cuyo Is., Sulu Sea and Western Visayas. Cloudy skies with occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls and SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected tonight and tomorrow. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed June 24 2009
Location of Center: 13.6º N Lat 120.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) WNW of Puerto Galera
Distance 2: 65 km (35 nm) WSW of Batangas City
Distance 3: 80 km (43 nm) SSW of Tagaytay City
Distance 4: 90 km (48 nm) South of Corregidor Island
Distance 5: 115 km (63 nm) WSW of Lucena City
Distance 6: 120 km (65 nm) SSW of Metro Manila
Distance 7: 135 km (73 nm) South of Subic/Olongapo City
Distance 8: 290 km (157 nm) West of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Batangas Coast
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PST Wed June 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Wed June 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed June 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, MARINDQUE, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATAAN, RIZAL...and is now hoisted over PAMPANGA, BULACAN, ZAMBALES, TARLAC.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight and tomorrow (with winds of up to 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAMARINES PROVINCES, CALAMIAN GROUP, CUYO IS., BURIAS, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO IS., SOUTHERN AURORA, NUEVA ECIJA, PANGASINAN, AKLAN, NORTHERN ANTIQUE.
Now lowered: ALBAY, SORSOGON, MASBATE, OTHER PARTS OF NORTHERN VISAYAS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 25 JUNE: 14.3N 120.1E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 25 JUNE: 16.2N 119.0E / 95-120 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 26 JUNE: 20.0N 117.7E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 27 JUNE: 22.9N 118.8E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 24 JUNE POSITION: 13.0N 121.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS MAINTAINED AN
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. INTENSITY IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AND
IS SUPPORTED BY A SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. INTENSITY HAS
ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED BY STEADILY IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A 232301Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
240000Z POSITION AND CURRENT BEST TRACK. THE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS VERY
DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST....(more)

>> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruit. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 24 JUNE: 13.5N 121.0E / NW @ 17 kph / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm