Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (FERIA) approaching Samar-Leyte...[Update #003]

for Tuesday, 23 June 2009 [7:43 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon June 22 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories on Tropical Depression 04W as it heads towards Samar-Bicol Area.

04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FERIA)
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 23 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #002 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Depression 04W (FERIA) still accelerating Westward...now threatens Samar, Leyte and Masbate area.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress of 04W.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: 04W shall start to turn more WNW and slowly intensify into a Tropical Storm. The 2-day Medium Range Forecast shows 04W making landfall over Samar or Leyte this afternoon and cross either Masbate or Sorsogon early tomorrow morning (around 2 AM).

+ Effects: 04W's small circulation continues intensify. Rain bands spreading across Samar, Leyte, parts of Visayas and Northern Mindanao...Winds of up to 55 kph with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected along these bands. Rain bands may reach Southern Bicol later this afternoon. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along the disturbance's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue June 23 2009
Location of Center: 11.0º N Lat 126.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 175 km (95 nm) ESE of Borongan, E.Samar
Distance 2: 210 km (188 nm) East of Tacloban City
Distance 3: 405 km (220 nm) SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 420 km (225 nm) SE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 380 km (205 nm) ESE of Masbate
Distance 6: 460 km (260 nm) SE of Gota Beach
Distance 7: 495 km (267 nm) SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Disturbance
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-0 feet [0-0.0 m]
Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 33 kph (18 kts)
General Direction: Samar-Leyte Area
Size (in Diameter): 250 km (135 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Tue June 23
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Mon June 22
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
Now In Effect: Samar Provinces, Leyte Provinces, Camotes Is., Biliran Is., Northern Cebu, Bohol, Dinagat Is., Siargao, Surigao del Norte.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 23 JUNE: 11.8N 125.9E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (06 GMT) 24 JUNE: 12.9N 124.1E / 95-120 KPH / NW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (06 GMT) 25 JUNE: 15.6N 121.1E / 100-130 KPH / NNW @ 19 KPH

2 AM (06 GMT) 26 JUNE: 19.3N 120.1E / 65-85 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE POSITION: 11.1N 128.0E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W (FOUR) REACHED WARNING CRITERIA
AT 221200Z. A 220947Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUPPORTS A 25 KNOT CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, WITH ALL AGENCIES RETURNING DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, AS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221035Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE...(more)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) 23 JUNE: 10.9N 127.3E / WNW @ 15 kph / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 04W (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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