Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (03W) has lingered again outside PAR... [Update #005]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TS LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 19 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #008 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm LINFA (03W) gained more strength as it remains almost stationary just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR)...may threaten Batanes-Taiwan this weekend.

*Residents and visitors along Ilocos Norte, Batanes-Calayan Group, Hong Kong and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to drift slowly towards the NNE to NE-ward for the next 5 days and enter PAR later today. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA reaching its peak winds of just 95 kph, making landfall near Kaohsiung City in Southern Taiwan by Sunday morning & passing to the North of Batanes Group of Islands on Sunday evening, June 21st. It shall then transition into an Extratropical Cyclone as it passes south of Southern Japan on Wednesday morning, June 24th.

+ Effects: LINFA's circulation continues to organize over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA continues to affect Western Luzon...becoming more intense along the Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union & Ilocos Provinces. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) newly spotted off Micronesia near the Island of Chuuk...located near lat 7.7N lon 151.2E...about 945 km SE of Hagatna, Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving West slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri June 19 2009
Location of Center: 18.2º N Lat 117.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km (187 nm) WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 360 km (195 nm) West of Laoag City
Distance 3: 565 km (305 nm) SW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 545 km (295 nm) SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: Quasi-Stationary
General Direction: Taiwan
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Fri June 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Fri June 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Fri June 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 19 JUNE: 19.1N 117.3E / 85-100 KPH / NNE @ 11 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 20 JUNE: 20.1N 118.0E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.4N 120.3E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 22 JUNE: 25.3N 123.2E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 30 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 18.1N 116.8E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) HAS SLOWLY INCREASED ITS
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, AN 182220Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWING UNFLAGGED WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45-KNOT RANGE AND AN
181748Z 36GHZ AQUA IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIALLY-FORMED MICROWAVE
EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD EQUATOR-
WARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING
HINDERED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER CHINA. TS 03W HAS CONTINUED
TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AMIDST A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
CAUSED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST...(more)

>> LINFA, meaning: Lotus. Name contributed by: Macau.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JUNE: xx.xN xxx.xE / xxx / xx kph (Outside PAR)

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm