Monday, June 22, 2009

TS LINFA (03W) - Update #014



 

for Monday, 22 June 2009 [7:50 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon June 22 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) on the weakening LINFA (03W). Meanwhile, all eyes on the Philippine Sea, East of Samar Island as Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) becomes stronger. All models (except ECMWF) predicts the development into a significant Tropical Cyclone w/in 1-2 days. Stay tuned


LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014

As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Mon 22 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #019 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION
  • Tropical Storm LINFA (03W) weakened considerably after making landfall near Xiamen City last night...still on a Northerly track across Fujian Province.

    *Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to turn NE within the next 12-24 hours and accelerate across the East China Sea. The 1-day Short-Range Forecast shows LINFA downgraded into a Tropical Depression and dissipating just to the north of Okinawa tomorrow afternoon due to cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear.

    + Effects: LINFA's weakening core continues to track across Fujian Province. Most of its elongated rain bands remains along the coast of Fujian & Eastern Gunagdong. Winds of up to 65 kph with light to moderate to sometimes heavy rains can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of LINFA. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA)  has become stronger and is now considered an active one as it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...located near lat 10.1N lon 134.1E...or about 965 km ESE of Borongan, Eastern Samar or 1,250 km ESE of Metro Naga (CWC)...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving WNW @ 19 kph towards Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.

    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Mon June 22 2009
    Location of Center: 25.7º N Lat 118.8º E Lon
    Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) SW of Fuzhou, China
    Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) NNE of Xiamen, China
    Distance 3: 290 km (157 nm) WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
    Distance 4: 310 km (167 nm) SSW of Wenzhou, China
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    General Direction: Fujian Province
    Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Mon June 22
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Sun June 21
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Mon June 22
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:
    2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JUNE: 26.4N 119.7E / 45-65 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE: 28.2N 122.5E / 35-55 KPH / ENE @ 35 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 23 JUNE: 29.5N 126.8E / 30-45 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE POSITION: 25.3N 118.7E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) HAS WEAKENED BELOW TYPHOON
    INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A MORE
    NORTHWARD TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AND MADE LANDFALL IN
    SOUTHEASTERN CHINA NEAR 211230Z. INTERACTION WITH A SMALL UPPER
    LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH PREVIOUSLY HAD PROVIDED AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HAS
    OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS ERODED CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
    OF THE SYSTEM. INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE SYSTEM HAS APPROACHED
    MAINLAND CHINA HAS ALSO ACTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
    ...(
    more)

    >> LINFA, meaning: LotusName contributed by: Macau.

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: N/A

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION
    :


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTES:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
     
      * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
          signals, visit:
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

     ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved

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