Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (03W) threatens Taiwan... [Update #006]

for Friday, 19 June 2009 [6:30 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TS LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
As of 6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Fri 19 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #009 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm LINFA (03W) continues to pick-up steam just outside of the Philippine Area of Responsiblity (PAR)...now drifting slowly northward.

*Residents and visitors along Southern China, Hong Kong and Taiwan including Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LINFA is expected to move NNE to NE-ward for the next 5 days and shall enter PAR tomorrow. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA reaching its peak winds of just 100 kph, making landfall near Kaohsiung City in Southern Taiwan on Sunday morning & passing to the North of Batanes Group of Islands on late Sunday afternoon, June 21st. It shall then weaken slowly as it transform into an Extratropical Cyclone while passing to the south of Southern Japan on Tuesday evening, June 23rd.

+ Effects: LINFA's circulation continues to organize over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA continues to affect Western Luzon...becoming more intense along the Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union & Ilocos Provinces. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) remains drifting across Micronesia west of the Island of Chuuk...located near lat 7.5N lon 149.7E...about 845 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving West slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Fri June 19 2009
Location of Center: 19.0º N Lat 117.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 340 km (185 nm) WNW of Laoag City
Distance 2: 345 km (187 nm) NW of Vigan City
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 495 km (268 nm) SE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
General Direction: Taiwan
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Fri June 19
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Fri June 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Fri June 19
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.2N 118.1E / 95-120 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 20.5N 118.7E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 21 JUNE: 23.1N 121.0E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 22 JUNE: 25.8N 124.0E / 75-95 KPH / NE @ 22 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE POSITION: 18.4N 117.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) HAS SLOWLY INCREASED ITS
INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS, AN 182220Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWING UNFLAGGED WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45-KNOT RANGE AND AN
181748Z 36GHZ AQUA IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIALLY-FORMED MICROWAVE
EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD EQUATOR-
WARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING
HINDERED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER CHINA. TS 03W HAS CONTINUED
TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY AMIDST A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
CAUSED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST...(more)

>> LINFA, meaning: Lotus. Name contributed by: Macau.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JUNE: 18.3N 117.3E / NE @ 11 kph / 75 kph [Outside PAR]

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm