Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LINFA (03W) moving North closer to Taiwan-SE China... [Update #007]

for Saturday, 20 June 2009 [7:50 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu June 18 2009):

Currently issuing 6-HOURLY UPDATES (except 12 Midnight) ON TS LINFA (03W)

LINFA (03W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM LINFA (03W/0903)
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
As of 6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 20 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #011 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm LINFA (03W) has turned North...now threatens the coastal areas of Northwestern Taiwan and Southeastern China.

*Residents and visitors along Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of LINFA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: LINFA is now expected to move North to NNE for the next 2 days and shall no longer enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows LINFA reaching its peak winds of just 110 kph before entering the Strait of Taiwan early tomorrow morning. It shall cross Taiwan Strait affecting the coastal areas of SE China and NW & Northern Taiwan on Sunday afternoon, June 21 until early morning Monday, June 22. It shall then dissipate and accelerate NE to ENE on June 22 until June 24, passing north of Okinawa, & transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone while passing to the south of Southern Japan.

+ Effects: LINFA's circulation remains over the northern part of South China Sea. Its circulation is not yet affecting any land areas at this time.

+ Current Monsoon Intensity: Weak Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently being enhanced by LINFA is affecting Northwestern Luzon...becoming more intense along the La Union & Ilocos Provinces. Cloudy skies with passing drizzle to occasional rains and thunderstorms/squalls with SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected today. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA) remains drifting across Micronesia west of the Island of Chuuk...located near lat 8.6N lon 147.7E...about 620 km SSE of Hagatna, Guam...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...currently moving WNW slowly.

This system will be closely monitored for possible development into significant Tropical Cyclone within the next few days.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat June 20 2009
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 117.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 395 km (215 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 370 km (200 nm) South of Shantou, China
Distance 3: 415 km (225 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 4: 425 km (230 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 5: 500 km (270 nm) West of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: North @ 09 kph (05 kts)
General Direction: Taiwan Strait
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft (5.1 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Sat June 20
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Fri June 19
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat June 20
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 20 JUNE: 20.8N 117.5E / 110-140 KPH / NNE @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 21 JUNE: 22.1N 118.1E / 100-130 KPH / NNE @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 22 JUNE: 25.5N 120.4E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 24 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 23 JUNE: 28.2N 125.2E / 65-85 KPH / ENE @ 28 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE POSITION: 19.6N 117.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (LINFA) HAS SLOWLY INCREASED ITS
INTENSITY TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES ALONG WITH A 190609Z TRMM IMAGE
SHOWING A MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED BY MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH. TS
03W HAS ACCELERATED TOWARDS THE NORTH AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST HAS STRENGTHENED AND A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS ERODED...(more)

>> LINFA, meaning: Lotus. Name contributed by: Macau.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 20 JUNE: 19.8N 116.9E / NNE @ 11 kph / 95 kph [Outside PAR]

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS LINFA (03W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm