Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS NANGKA (FERIA) threatens Southern Tagalog including Metro Manila...[Update #007]

for Wednesday, 24 June 2009 [12:52 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue June 23 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories on TS NANGKA (FERIA).

NANGKA (FERIA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM NANGKA [FERIA/04W/0904]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007
As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Thu 25 June 2009
Source: JTWC WARNING #007 (US Navy/Air Force) / T2K XTRAPOLATION

Tropical Storm NANGKA (FERIA) has tracked NW over the past 3 hours and is now off the NE Coast of Mindoro...now endangers Puerto Galera-Batangas-Tagaytay-Metro Manila Area...Its small circulation is now lashing Northern Mindoro and Marinduque including the coasts of Batangas & Southern Quezon.

*Residents and visitors along Southern Tagalog Provinces, Mindoro, Metro Manila and SW Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NANGKA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: NANGKA is expected to track WNW to NW and pass over Mindoro Strait around 2-3PM this afternoon and shall pass along the coasts of Batangas and Cavite early tonight. The 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows NANGKA turning to the NNW passing along the west coast of Luzon early tomorrow until tomorrow afternoon, passing close to the provinces of Zambales, Bataan and Pangasinan. It shall move into South China Sea on Thursday evening reaching its peak forecast winds of 110 kph. NANGKA shall start to recurve towards the NNE to NE by Saturday June 27 and pass along Taiwan Strait as a weakening system on Sunday, June 28. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that NANGKA shall track more to the North and pass over Metro Manila tonight. This scenario is likely if the High Pressure Ridge off Northern Luzon weakens and allow NANGKA to move up.

+ Effects: NANGKA's main core remains small while moving across the NE coast of Mindoro. Its inner bands continue to spread across Romblon, Mindoro, Marinduque and is expected to reach Batangas, Laguna later this afternoon...Winds of up to 100 kph with moderate to heavy rains can be expected along the inner bands. Meanwhile, outer bands of NANGKA remains across parts of Northern Visayas, Palawan, Southern Tagalog Provinces including Metro Manila & Masbate. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 150 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center. Improving weather can be expected across the rest of Bicol Peninsula and Rest of Visayas as the storm moves farther away. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed June 24 2009
Location of Center: 13.1º N Lat 121.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 40 km (22 nm) SSW of Marinduque
Distance 2: 85 km (45 nm) NW of Romblon
Distance 3: 90 km (48 nm) South of Lucena City
Distance 4: 95 km (50 nm) ESE of Puerto Galera
Distance 5: 95 km (50 nm) SE of Batangas City
Distance 6: 140 km (75 nm) SSE of Tagaytay City
Distance 7: 170 km (92 nm) SSE of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 170 km (92 nm) WSW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
General Direction: Mindoro-Batangas
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Wed June 24
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 00Z Wed June 24
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Wed June 24
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, MARINDQUE, ROMBLON, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MINDORO, LUBANG IS., BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, BATAAN, & RIZAL.

The above areas will experience stormy weather today (with winds of up to 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: REST OF BICOL REGION, CALAMIAN GROUP, CUYO IS., TICAO & BURIAS, REST OF QUEZON, POLILLO IS., BULACAN, NUEVA ECIJA, TARLAC, PAMPANGA, ZAMBALES, PANGASINAN, AKLAN, ILOILO, BORACAY, & ANTIQUE.
Now lowered: CATANDUANES AND OTHER PARTS OF VISAYAS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 24 JUNE: 13.5N 120.7E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 25 JUNE: 15.2N 119.3E / 100-130 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 26 JUNE: 19.1N 117.7E / 100-130 KPH / N @ 13 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 27 JUNE: 21.7N 117.7E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 24 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 24 JUNE POSITION: 12.6N 122.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (NANGKA) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS MAINTAINED AN
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. INTENSITY IS MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY AND
IS SUPPORTED BY A SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. INTENSITY HAS
ALSO BEEN MAINTAINED BY STEADILY IMPROVING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. A 232301Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SUPPORTS THE
240000Z POSITION AND CURRENT BEST TRACK. THE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS VERY
DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST....(more)

>> NANGKA, meaning: JackFruit. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 24 JUNE: 13.0N 121.5E / NW @ 17 kph / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NANGKA (FERIA)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm