Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 99W StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 99W STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Wednesday 08 November 2017 Next update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT), Thursday 09 Nov 2017 or Earlier
Current Status and Outlook	A fast-moving Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over Western Micronesia has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 to 48 hours…now threatens Eastern Visayas and Southern Bicol. The system's circulation together with its associated Trough will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao beginning today through Thursday (Nov 09).
Where is the LPA 99W?	As of 5:00 AM PhT, November 08…2100 GMT.  The center was located over the southeastern part of the Central Philippine Sea (near 10.2N 132.2E), about 714 km east-southeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar or 800 km east-southeast of Tacloban City, Leyte.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West-Northwest @ 33 kph, towards Eastern Visayas.
Forecast Highlights	The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are predicting this system to make landfall over Eastern Samar between 4am to 8am Thursday, Nov 09.  The system's strength could likely be a Tropical Depression (TD) or a weak Tropical Storm (TS). If the system maintains its strength, then it will remain a Low Pressure Area (LPA) as it traverses Northern Visayas. The forecast confidence is currently at MEDIUM. Its main circulation will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across Bicol Region, and the rest of  the Visayas beginning late today through Thursday (Nov 09). Once this LPA becomes a TD it will be named locally as "SALOME." The Day 3 forecast (Nov 11) shows it moving out of the PAR on Saturday early morning, in the general direction of Southern China.  This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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