Tropical Disturbance (LPA) 96W StormWatch No. 01

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (LPA) 96W STORMWATCH NO. 01 Issued at: 12:30 AM PhT (16:30 GMT) Wednesday 01 November 2017 Next update: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT), Thursday 02 Nov 2017 or earlier
Current Status and Outlook	A developing Tropical Disturbance (LPA) tagged as "96W" has been traversing the Visayas and is likely to strengthen into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours as it emerges over the Sulu Sea-West Philippine Sea Area. The system's circulation together with the enhanced surge of the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) is currently bringing scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across most parts of Visayas and Eastern Luzon particularly the Bicol Region, and is likely to spread across CaLaBaRZon, MiMaRoPa and parts of Metro Manila today.
Where is LPA 96W?	As of 8:00 PM PhT, October 31…1200 GMT.  The center was located over the northeastern part of Iloilo (near 11.0N 122.9E), about 48 km northeast of Iloilo City, Iloilo or 319 km east-southeast of Coron, Palawan.
How strong is it?	Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 35 kph near the center…Gustiness: 45 kph
Past Movement (06 hrs)	It was moving West-Northwest @ 37 kph, towards Panay-Cuyo-Calamian Area.
Forecast Highlights	The reliable Global Typhoon Forecast Models (GTFM) are showing this system to become a Tropical Depression (TD) within the next 12 to 24 hours (between 8am to 8pm today, Nov 01) as it passes Cuyo and Calamian Group of Islands.  The forecast confidence is currently at MEDIUM. LPA 96W's main circulation will bring scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Western & Central Visayas and CaLaBaRZon. Once this LPA becomes a TD it will be named locally as "RAMIL." The Day 2 forecast (Nov 02) shows it moving out of the PAR on Thursday evening, in the general direction of Vietnam.  This 24-hour StormWatch Update will be replaced with a 12 or 6-hrly Tropical Cyclone Updates once the LPA develops into a Tropical Cyclone.
Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for WeatherPhilippines

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Posted by: "Typhoon2000.com (Michael V. Padua)" <T2Kstormupdates@gmail.com>

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