Sunday, April 01, 2012

TS PAKHAR [02W] - Update #009


for Sunday, 01 April 2012 [8:23 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Mar 29 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on PAKHAR (02W).


+ USA (FWC-N/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 01 Apr 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/Fleet Weather Center-Norfolk TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm PAKHAR (02W) approaching the coast of Southern Vietnam with its rainbands affecting the area...landfall expected around sunset or early tonight.

Projected Landfall Area [PLA]: Near Vung Tau (between 6-7pm HK Time today).

Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of PAKHAR (02W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun April 01 2012
Location of Center: 9.5º N Lat 108.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 236 km SE of Ho Chi Minh City
Distance 2: 313 km SSW of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 448 km SE of Phnom Penh, Cambodia
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Southern Vietnam
NOAA 12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
TRMM Rainrate (near center): 25-50 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km (240 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sun Apr 01


PAKHAR (02W) is expected to turn WNW-ward over the next 1 to 2 days. On the forecast track, the core of PAKHAR will make landfall over Southern Vietnam (near Vung Tau) after sunset today or early this evening, and will pass very close to Ho Chi Minh City early Monday morning (approx. 1-2AM HK Time). This system will cross the Vietnamese-Cambodian Border on Monday afternoon and dissipate over Central Cambodia by early Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. PAKHAR is forecast to lose strength during the next 12 to 24 hours due to land interaction.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. PAKHAR (02W) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY EARLY MORNING:  Over Southern Vietnam...just barely a Tropical Storm, about 15 km NE of Ho Chi Minh City [2AM APR 02: 10.9N 106.8E @ 65kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Loses Tropical Cyclone status...just an area of low pressure moving across Central Cambodia [2AM APR 03: 12.5N 104.6E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (South China Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the coastal areas of Southern Vietnam. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southeastern & Southern Vietnam. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 110 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 111 to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of PAKHAR (02W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern Vietnam today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Spratly Islands & other coastal areas of Vietnam.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS PAKHAR (02W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0212.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: PAKHAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS PAKHAR (02W)...go visit our website @:


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