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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Nov 13 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W.
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 14 November 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) prepares to make landfall along the Vietnamese provinces of Bin Dinh & Quang Ngai. Torrential rains affecting Central Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Central Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of 18W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 13 2010
Location of Center: 14.6º N Lat 109.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) East of Bin Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 215 km (115 nm) SSE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 1250 km (675 nm) West of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Central Vietnam
12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 14
18W is expected dissipate along Central Vietnam within the next 24 hours.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
18W remains a tropical depression with convective rain clouds surrounding the circulation. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
HEAVY SPIRAL RAINBANDS - its western rainbands affecting Central Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa. Where light, moderate to strong winds (<45 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W, particularly along Bin Dinh & Quang Ngai Provinces [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN QUEZON, BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East or SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today. The presence of strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 18W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1810.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DA_NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED BUT HAS FLARED IN THE LAST
TWO HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATION. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 18W IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)OF 25-30KTS AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OFFSET EACH OTHER IN THE SHOT TERM, KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE 24
HOUR FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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