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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Nov 13 2010):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W - newly-formed off the coast of Vietnam.
18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 46 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 13 November 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) continues to move very slowly towards Central Vietnam. Rainbands together with the enhanced Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) are bringing widespread rains across the coastal towns of Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Nha Trang-Hue Area in Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of 18W.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 13 2010
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 111.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 285 km (155 nm) NE of Nha Trang, Vietnam
Distance 2: 385 km (208 nm) SE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 1070 km (578 nm) West of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Central Vietnam
18-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 200 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sat Nov 13
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
18W is expected to be short-lived as it turns more WNW-ward slowly towards the coast of Central Vietnam. Steering pattern analysis and various forecast guidance models continues to show this weak depression dissipating into an area of low pressure by tomorrow, Sunday (Nov 14).
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
18W is a weak depression with convective rain clouds surrounding the circulation. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING SPIRAL RAINBANDS - mostly at sea or over the South China Sea...but its western outer rainbands accompanied with the enhanced NE Monsoon is already affecting the coastal areas of Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa. Where light to moderate winds (<45 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
18-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].
CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered rains & thunderstorms can be expected along these following affected areas: LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East, SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today. Moderate to strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TD 18W (UNNAMED)
View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1810.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265NM SOUTHEAST
OF HUE CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 130228Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. A
130248Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 20-25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT ALTHOUGH A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO
THE NORTHEAST, OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE
RECENT ASCAT DATA. TD 18W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, ALTHOUGH
LIMITED, SUPPORT THIS FORECAST TRACK AND INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL
MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS....(more)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER
> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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