Bushman's Typhoon Blog: November 2010

Sunday, November 14, 2010

TD 18W [UNNAMED] - Final Update

for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [6:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday Nov 14 2010):

Now ending the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W as it dissipates off Southern Laos.

18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

REMNANTS OF T.D. 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005 ***FINAL***
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 14 November 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

18W (Unnamed) has weakened into an area of low pressure (tropical disturbance). Its remnants will move through the southern part of Laos tonight. Moderate to heavy rains will continue to affect Vietnam and Southern Laos.

*This is the Final T2K Advisory on TD 18W. There will be no further updates on this system.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Nov 13 2010
Location of Center: 14.8º N Lat 107.8º E Lon
Distance 1: Over Kon Tum Province (Vietnam)
Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) SSW of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 190 km (103 nm) South of Hue, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 35 kph (20 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 55 kph (30 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Southern Laos
18-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: N/A
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 6 ft (1.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder Final TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 14

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 12 hours)*

18W is expected dissipate along Southern Laos within the next 06 to 12 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 35 km/hr (20 knots) with higher gusts.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

18W remnants will still produce convective rain clouds along the affected areas. Below are the summary of the disturbance' parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DISSIPATING SPIRAL RAINBANDS - continues to affect Central Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa...extending across Central and Southern Laos. Where light to moderate winds (<35 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
18-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W, particularly along the Vietnam-Southern Laos Border. [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing rains, squalls (aka. "subasko") & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL REGION, VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East, SE or NE winds (not in excess of 35 kph) can be expected today. The presence of strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for Ex-TD 18W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1810.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): None.
*N/A..(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**N/A**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD 18W [UNNAMED] - Update #004

for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [12:08 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Nov 13 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W.

18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 14 November 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) has made landfall over Central Vietnam...in the vicinity of Southern Quang Ngai a few hours ago. Widespread rains will continue to lash the area as it dissipates over land.

Residents and visitors along Central Vietnam and Southern Laos should closely monitor the progress of 18W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun Nov 13 2010
Location of Center: 14.8º N Lat 108.3º E Lon
Distance 1: Over Kon Tum Province (Vietnam)
Distance 2: 145 km (78 nm) South of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 1375 km (742 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Southern Laos
12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 14

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

18W is expected dissipate along Central Vietnam & Southern Laos within the next 12 to 24 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

18W remains a tropical depression with convective rain clouds surrounding the circulation. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

HEAVY SPIRAL RAINBANDS - its western rainbands continues to affect Central Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa...extending across Southern Laos. Where light, moderate to strong winds (<45 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W, particularly along Bin Dinh, Quang Ngai & Kon Tum Provinces [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing rains, squalls (aka. "subasko") & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN QUEZON, BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East, SE or NE winds (not in excess of 40 kph) can be expected today. The presence of strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 18W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1810.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 14 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.8N 109.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SSE OF
DA NANG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED AND FURTHER DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS SOLID. THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLANK OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS JUST
MADE LANDFALL OVER THE VIETNAM COAST, IS SUPPORTED BY A 132235Z
SSMI/S MICROWAVE IMAGE. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OF 25
KNOTS BASED ON 132330Z PGTW DVORAK FIX. TD 18W IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**N/A**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__._,_.___

Reply to sender | Reply to group | Reply via web post | Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity:

New Members 1

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__,_._,___

TD 18W [UNNAMED] - Update #003

for Sunday, 14 November 2010 [7:39 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Nov 13 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12 AM) on TD 18W.

18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Vietnam (NCHMF/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 14 November 2010
Sources: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 18W (Unnamed) prepares to make landfall along the Vietnamese provinces of Bin Dinh & Quang Ngai. Torrential rains affecting Central Vietnam.

Residents and visitors along Central Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of 18W.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 13 2010
Location of Center: 14.6º N Lat 109.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 45 km (25 nm) East of Bin Dinh, Vietnam
Distance 2: 215 km (115 nm) SSE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 3: 1250 km (675 nm) West of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Central Vietnam
12-hr Total Rainfall (near center): 230 mm (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft (2.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun Nov 14

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*

18W is expected dissipate along Central Vietnam within the next 24 hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

18W remains a tropical depression with convective rain clouds surrounding the circulation. Below are the summary of the depression's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

HEAVY SPIRAL RAINBANDS - its western rainbands affecting Central Vietnam...from the province of Quang-Tri down to Khanh Hoa. Where light, moderate to strong winds (<45 kph) can be expected along these bands today. (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of 18W, particularly along Bin Dinh & Quang Ngai Provinces [click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic].

CURRENT EASTERLIES INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing rains & thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: NORTHERN QUEZON, BICOL REGION, EASTERN VISAYAS & EASTERN MINDANAO. Calm & light to moderate East or SE winds (not in excess of 25 kph) can be expected today. The presence of strong easterlies (trade winds) are one of the signs of a strong La Nina climate occurring across the Pacific Ocean.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 14 NOVEMBER POSITION: 14.4N 109.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 126 NM SOUTHEAST
OF DA_NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION
HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED BUT HAS FLARED IN THE LAST
TWO HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATION. TD 18W HAS MAINTAINED A WEAK INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS,
BASED ON THE LATEST PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES. TD 18W IS
ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)OF 25-30KTS AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CHINA MOVES EASTWARD. THE COMPETING
INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS ARE
EXPECTED TO OFFSET EACH OTHER IN THE SHOT TERM, KEEPING THE SYSTEM AT
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE 24
HOUR FORECAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INLAND AND
DISSIPATE...(more)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:

**N/A**
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________