Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KROSA (INENG) turning WNW towards Taiwan... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TYPHOON KROSA [INENG/17W/0715]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) WED 03 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) THU 04 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 008
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TYPHOON KROSA (INENG) HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS

AND IS NOW AIMING FOR BATANES-TAIWAN AREA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KROSA is expected to turn more NW'ly later tonight

and accelerate slightly. The 3 to 5-day forecast shows KROSA becoming

an extremely dangerous Category 4 Typhoon with winds reaching 215 km/hr

on Saturday, Oct 06. Its eye shall reach Yaeyama Islands Sunday after-

noon with a sudden slow in its NW track. It shall pass about 155 km.

East of Taipei, Taiwan early Monday morning, Oct 8 (approx 6 AM HK

Time) and start losing strength late Oct 8 due to increasing wind shear

and dry air over East China Sea.

+ EFFECTS: KROSA is not yet affecting any part of the Philippines or

nearby Pacific Islands. Its main circulation has expanded once again

over the Northern part of the Philippine Sea, affecting only the shi-

pping lanes. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along the eastern coas-

tal stretch of Luzon and Visayas. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5

feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering

waves can be expected near and to the north of KROSA's projected path.

Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm surge.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Weak to moderate Southwest (SW)

Monsoon enhanced by Typhoon KROSA (INENG) - will continue to bring

mostly cloudy skies with possible intermittent afternoon or evening

rainfall & SW'ly winds of 10 km/hr or higher across Western Philippines

becoming more frequent over Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila

& portions of Visayas. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur along

steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas, while big sea waves or surges generated by this monsoon

can affect the coastal and beach-front areas of Western Visayas and Wes-

tern Luzon. Meanwhile, the rest of the Philippines is under the ITCZ,

which will bring scattered rains and thunderstorms most especially in

the afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 03 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 17.4º N...LONGITUDE 129.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 790 KM (427 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 2: 815 KM (440 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 3: 820 KM (442 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 4: 850 KM (458 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 5: 950 KM (513 NM) NE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 967 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: BATANES-TAIWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,240 KM (670 NM)/VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME WED OCTOBER 03
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.1N 128.7E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 19.2N 127.5E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 05 OCTOBER: 21.2N 125.7E / 205-240 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER POSITION: 17.2N 129.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 17W (KROSA) HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE

PAST 12 HOURS DESPITE SOME IMPINGEMENT UPON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION

OF THE STORM CAUSED BY AN INDUCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE FACT

THAT IT HAS REMAINED OVER THE SAME AREA FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS.

PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALTHOUGH A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS DEPICTED IN
THE ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STORM HAS TRACKED MAINLY WESTWARD
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.
THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE INTENSIFICATION
OF THE STORM...(more)

>> KROSA {pronounced: kro~saah}, meaning: Crane.
Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.1N 129.7E / WNW @ 13 KPH / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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