Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TYPHOON USAGI [05W/0705]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) THU 02 AUGUST 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 02 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) THU 02 AUGUST
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #018
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON USAGI (05W) WEAKENED TO CATEGORY THREE AS IT PRE-
PARES TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN KYUSHU-SHIKOKU AREA...NOW
TURNING MORE TO THE NORTH.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: USAGI is expected to make landfall PARES TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN KYUSHU-SHIKOKU AREA...NOW
TURNING MORE TO THE NORTH.
tonight around 11 PM Japan Standard Time (JST) in between
Kyushu and Shikoku, then shall cross the westernmost part
of Honshu early tomorrow morning (Fri Aug 3). Lower sea
surface temperatures (SSTs), strong upper level winds
(vertical wind shear) and land interaction shall continue
to weaken this typhoon. It shall then be downgraded into
a Tropical Storm while moving NE'ly along the northern
coast of Honshu or off the Sea of Japan tomorrow afternoon
thru Saturday, Aug 4. USAGI is forecast become Extratropi-
cal after crossing Hokkaido on Sunday afternoon (Aug 5)
and speeds up over the open North Pacific Ocean.
+ EFFECTS: USAGI's northern outer bands has just spread
across Kyushu, Shikoku and Western Honshu. Light to mode-
rate rains with increasing winds can be expected along the
area. Meanwhile, the inner bands of the typhoon are now
advancing and has reached the coastal areas of Kyushu and
expected to spread across Kyushu and Shikoku late today.
Deteriorating weather conditions can be expected tonight
as the weakening typhoon makes landfall. Typhoon conditions
are expected tonight until tomorrow over Shikoku, Honshu and
Westernmost Honshu as USAGI passes by. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 09 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the north of USAGI's projected path particularly
the along the coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and Western Honshu.
Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks,
low-lying and mountainous areas of the affected areas. Pre-
cautionary measures must be on high alert status as the
typhoon approaches.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH PREDICTOR: The European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) continues to forecast
a formation of two (2) more Tropical Cyclones around August
3 to 9. During the latest run of the model forecast (8 PM
Aug 01), it showed the first system forming over the South
China Sea around Aug 3 (Fri), becoming a Typhoon before ma-
king landfall over Hainan and Northern Vietnam on Aug 6 or 7.
Meanwhile, the second system is likely to form sometime Aug
6 or 7 (Mon or Tue) in the area off the Philippine Sea,
just to the east of Luzon - then heading west-northwest in
the direction of Batanes-Taiwan area as a Tropical Storm
on Aug 8 to 10. The second one still shows a close proximity
to Luzon which might enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring
moderate to heavy rainfall over the area. If this happens,
it might bring a big relief to the dry areas of Luzon par-
ticularly over Angat Dam and other reservoirs. This scenario
remains supported by the Global Tropics Benefits/Hazard
Assessment of NOAA. Watch out for continued updates on
this advanced forecast.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 02 AUGUST
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 29.6º N...LONGITUDE 133.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 350 KM (190 NM) SE OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 435 KM (235 NM) SOUTH OF KOCHI, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 540 KM (292 NM) SSE OF HIROSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 630 KM (340 NM) NE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)PEAK WIND GUSTS: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY THREE (3)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 944 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: KYUSHU-SHIKOKU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 740 KM (400 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 35 FEET (10.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 3 AM JST THU AUGUST 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 AUGUST: 31.5N 132.3E / 165-205 KPH / N @ 20 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 AUGUST: 33.6N 132.2E / 130-160 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 37.9N 135.6E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 28 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 02 AUGUST POSITION: 29.0N 133.8E.
^ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011644Z AMSR-E IMAGE DEPICT
WARMING EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY
HAS NOT CHANGED AND THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE INTENSITIES WERE LOWERED AFTER
24 HOURS DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LAND INTERACTION, AND
COOL SSTS OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN (< 24-25C). ADDITIONALLY,
MODEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) AFTER 24 HOURS AND WILL COMPLETE
ET BEFORE 72 HOURS, PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER/NEAR MISAWA AS
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM OF 45-KNOT INTENSITY...(more info)
>> USAGI {pronounced: usa-gi}, meaning: Lepus (rabbit).
Name contributed by: Japan.
____________
____________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on TY USAGI (05W)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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