Monday, May 21, 2012

TD 03W [Unnamed] - Update #001


for Monday, 21 May 2012 [7:58 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday May 21 2012):

Now issuing the 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 03W (UNNAMED).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 21 May 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)
The strong disturbance to the southeast of Guam has strengthened into Tropical Depression 03W (Unnamed)...likely to bring rains with gusty winds across the Northern Marianas tonight through tomorrow.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Northern Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of 03W (Unnamed).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon May 21 2012
Location of Center: 11.3º N Lat 145.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 242 km SSE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 823 km ENE of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,134 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2,168 km East of Visayas, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Marianas
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 9 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon May 21


03W (Unnamed) is expected move NW-ward for the next 12 to 24 hours, before turning more northerly through Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of 03W will pass close to the west of Guam tomorrow morning, and well to the west of Saipan by tomorrow evening. This system will be just to the west of Agrihan Island by Thursday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 03W is forecast to intensify and will likely become a Tropical Storm tomorrow afternoon...and will be at near-typhoon strength on Thursday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Upgraded to a Tropical Storm as it turn NNW, about 100 km West of Guam [2PM MAY 22: 13.9N 143.3E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Still gaining strength as it turns more Northerly across the Western Pacific Ocean [2PM MAY 23: 17.2N 142.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  At near-Typhoon strength as it passes to west of the northernmost Mariana Islands. [2PM MAY 24: 21.4N 143.0E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INCREASING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Southern and Northern Mariana Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands tonight and tomorrow (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 03W (Unnamed). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 03W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0312.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 03W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TD 03W (Unnamed)...go visit our website @:


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