Bushman's Typhoon Blog: September 2009

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

TS MELOR (20W) - Update #002

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [7:56 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on TS MELOR (20W).

MELOR (20W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MELOR [20W/0918]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #005
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) still gaining intensity as it moves in the direction of Marianas.

*Residents and visitors along the Mariana Islands should closely monitor the progress of MELOR (20W).

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MELOR is expected to turn more westward for the next 24 to 36 hours and intensify. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows MELOR turning slightly WNW, becoming a Category 1 Typhoon as it approaches Northern Marianas on Friday Oct 2...and shall pass north of Guam or very close to Saipan & Rota Islands on Saturday afternoon Oct 3. Its projected wind speeds near the EYE during its passage over the Marianas is about 150 kph. Later on in the forecast, MELOR shall turn more to the NW in the direction of the Philippine Sea.

+ Effects: MELOR's circulation continues to improve with the early stages of a Central-Dense Overcast (CDO), an area where the EYE and EYEWALL will form. Its rainbands is not yet affecting any major Pacific Islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along KETSANA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of the storm. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 12.7º N Lat 154.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,055 km (570 nm) ESE of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 990 km (535 nm) ESE of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 m]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
General Direction: Marianas
Size (in Diameter): 335 km (180 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): N/A
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.2N 153.0E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.2N 151.3E / 110-140 KPH (TS) / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 13.8N 148.2E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 14.5N 145.6E / 150-185 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 12.6N 154.7E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED
NEAR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BUILD, HOWEVER STILL REMAINS SPORADIC IN THE CURVED
BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER
HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND WITH INCREASED
ORGANIZATION AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, TS 20W IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...(more)

>> MELOR, meaning: Jasmine Flower. Name contributed by: Malaysia.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MELOR (20W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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TD 18W (UNNAMED) - Final Update

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [7:46 PM PST]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly (except 12 AM) advisories on TD 18W (UNNAMED).

18W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009 [FINAL]
5:00 PM PST (09:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #013 (FINAL)
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

18W (UNNAMED) weakens into a Tropical Depression after passing close to Guam this afternoon. This system will be absorbed into the circulation of PARMA.

*This is the Final Update on this system.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: N/A.

+ Effects: N/A.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Center: 13.9º N Lat 143.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km (70 nm) WNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 260 km (140 nm) SW of Saipan, CNMI
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 39 kph (21 kts)
General Direction: Philippine Sea
Size (in Diameter): -- km (--- nm) / N/A
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft (3.6 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3-days Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 15.1N 140.4E / 30-45 KPH (LPA) / WNW @ 34 KPH

2 PM (00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 15.9N 136.6E / 30-45 KPH (LPA) / - @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 13.9N 144.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 18W (EIGHTEEN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 18W HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AS IT
CROSSED OVER GUAM, DEGENERATING INTO LINEAR CONVERGENCE. THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH TD 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS
TY 19W AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...(more)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 18W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic

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Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe

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Typhoon PARMA (Pre-PEPENG) has entered PAR, threatens Luzon... [Update #008]

for Wednesday, 30 September 2009 [5:42 PM PST]

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Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts on PEPENG!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
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*only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
powered by: Synermaxx

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed September 30 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG).

PARMA (PEPENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr

TYPHOON PARMA [PEPENG/19W/0917]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 30 September 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon PARMA (PEPENG) is now well within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...strengthening as it threatens Luzon, Philippines.

*Residents and visitors along the east coast of Luzon, Philippines should closely monitor the progress of PARMA.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: PARMA is expected to maintain its WNW track across the warm Philippine Sea. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system at its closest point of approach (CPA) to Bicol Region - about 385 km. NE of Metro Naga/CWC on Friday afternoon, with Category 3 strength of 185 kph near the eye...and shall move closer to the coast of Cagayan with a distance of only 120 km. NE of the northeastern tip of Luzon. PARMA shall be very close to the Batanes Islands...about 75 km. to the east of Basco on Monday morning, Oct 5 - with Category 4 strength of 215 kph near the eye. Please be aware that long-range forecast changes every now and then. Continued monitoring on this potential typhoon is a must for disaster preparedness agencies.

+ Effects: PARMA's circulation is slowly growing in size as it moves across the Philippine Sea...now an average tropical cyclone. Its inner (rain) bands has left the islands of Yap & Ulithi with only the eastern outer bands affecting the islands. Meanwhile, its outer (feeder) bands still spreading across Palau Island and extends west across Eastern and Southern Mindanao - passing rains, squalls, thunderstorms w/ gale-force winds may be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm (moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along PARMA's rainbands...with isolated accumulations of up to 400 mm (very heavy rain) near the center of PARMA.

+ Tropical Cyclone Watch:

(1) Tropical Depression 18W (UNNAMED) located ENE of TY PARMA, has started dissipating after passing close to Guam. Click here to view the final T2K advisory.

(2) Tropical Storm MELOR (20W) continues to gain strength as it moves towards the Marianas. Click here to view latest T2K advisory.

Kindly click the cool T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued every afternoon, and shows various tropical systems roaming across the South China Sea and the Western Pacific Ocean.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed September 30 2009
Location of Eye: 10.4º N Lat 134.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 985 km (532 nm) ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 1,000 km (540 nm) ESE of Borongan, E.Samar
Distance 3: 1,165 km (630 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 1,180 km (638 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 1,215 km (655 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 1,225 km (660 nm) ESE of Gota Beach Resort
Distance 7: 1,280 km (692 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1,525 km (825 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the eye
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Projected Path (Impact): Philippine Sea-Taiwan Area
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft (6.7 m)
NWS-Guam TrackMap (for Public): 5 PM PST Wed Sep 30
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06 GMT Wed Sep 30
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Sep 30
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5-days Ahead
EORC-JAXA TRMM Viewer: Real-Time Rainrate Image new!
NASA-JAXA TMI Viewer: Latest Rainrate Image new!
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY/AIR FORCE) 12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 11.5N 132.8E / 160-195 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WNW @ 26 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 13.0N 130.3E / 165-205 KPH (TY-Cat 2) / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 15.1N 126.4E / 185-230 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NW @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.4N 124.0E / 195-240 KPH (TY-Cat 3) / NNW @ 09 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 9.9N 135.3E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A
292049Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT TY 19W REMAINS FAIRLY COMPACT,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS AT PALAU AND YAP. THE TRACK SPEED
FOR TY 19W HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS PARMA LOCATED UNDER A REGION OF
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO
PERSIST. DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 22 FEET...(more)

>> PARMA, meaning: Macanese food (ham with chicken livers and mushrooms). Name contributed by: Macau, China.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 30 SEPTEMBER: 10.2N 135.0E / WNW @ 22 kph / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT NWS-GUAM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION: (EXPERIENCING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS)

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY PARMA (PEPENG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm