Monday, January 05, 2009

TD AURING - Update #003


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003
Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING [99W] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) MON 05 JANUARY 2009
Source: PAGASA WARNING FOR SHIPPING #009 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING (99W) HEADING NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA. SURGE OF NORTHEAST MONSOON PREVAILING OVER
LUZON, BICOL REGION AND VISAYAS.

*Residents and visitors along Northern Visayas & Bicol Region should closely monitor the progress
of AURING
.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: AURING is expected to continue moving NE in the
direction of the Central Philippine Sea and away from the Philippines.
*Alternate Forecast Scenario: There's a possibility that AURING shall
track-back to the West to WSW tomorrow and cross Bicol-Samar area on
Wednesday. This scenario is likely if the developing High Pressure
Steering Ridge off Taiwan strengthens and becomes the dominant
factor - bringing strong surge of NE Monsoon which will steer
AURING.

+ EFFECTS: AURING's circulation continues to consolidate to the east
of Bicol Region. Its convective rain bands is expected to bring
widespread rains with heavy squalls and winds not exceeding 60 kph
across the eastern coast of Bicol and Samar today. 1-day rainfall
accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is
possible along its rain bands.
..with isolated accumulations of up to
200 mm near the center of
AURING.
Residents in low-lying areas & steep
slopes must remain
alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threate
ning flash
floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains
brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated
if necessary. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected
along the beach-front areas of Luzon, Visayas, Bicol Region and
Northern Mindanao
.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY
Strong surge of Northeast (NE) Monsoon
continues
to affect Luzon, & Visayas becoming more intense across
Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.
Clear to cloudy
skies with possible passing drizzle to "on and
off" rainshowers &
NE'ly winds not exceeding 60 km/hr will
prevail on these areas for
the next 24 hours.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) MON 05 JAN 2009 
LOCATION OF MID-LEVEL CENTER: LATITUDE 13.7º N...LONGITUDE 128.7º
DISTANCE 1: 435 KM (235
NM) NE OF BORONGAN, EASTERN SAMAR, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 465 KM (250 NM) ENE OF CATARMAN, NORTHERN SAMAR, PH
DISTANCE 3: 475 KM (256 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 545 KM (295 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 5: 595 KM (322 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH 
MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 70 KM/HR (38 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 335 KM (180 NM)/
SMALL/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 
6 PM MANILA TIME MON JAN 05
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 06 JANUARY: 16.8N 131.8E
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 JANUARY: 20.5N 136.5E

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 JANUARY POSITION: 13.5N 128.3E.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TD AURING (99W)...go visit
our website @:

>
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