Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) heading towards HK... [Update #013]

for Saturday, 18 July 2009 [6:52 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 17 2009):

Returns back to its 6-hrly SMS, Web and E-mail Updates on Typhoon MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM).

MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TYPHOON MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Sat 18 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / CWB RADAR/ JTWC WARNING #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it continues to accelerate Westward across the South China Sea...now threatens Hong Kong...Landfall expected by tonight.

*Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving West to WNW and shall make landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong this evening. MOLAVE is forecast to rapidly dissipate tomorrow afternoon, July 19 as it moves overland, across the mountainous terrain of Guangdong, China .

+ Effects: MOLAVE's core (Eye & Eyewall) has filled in and is likely to weaken -- remains over the South China Sea. Its eastern inner bands no longer affecting Extreme Northern Luzon...Meanwhile, the outer bands of MOLAVE remains across Extreme Northern and Northwestern Luzon, Southern Coast of Taiwan and the coastal areas of Southern China. Rains and winds of 30-60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm along MOLAVE's Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of MOLAVE. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Northern & Eastern Luzon, including the monsoon affected areas.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with occasional to continuous moderate to heavy rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN LUZON including LUBANG ISLAND. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Sat July 18 2009
Location of Eye: 21.2º N Lat 118.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 220 km (120 nm) SW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 340 km (183 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 370 km (200 nm) South of Xiamen, China
Distance 4: 390 km (210 nm) NW of Laoag City
Distance 5: 480 km (260 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (65 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: West @ 35 kph (19 kts)
General Direction: Hong Kong Area
Size (in Diameter): 850 km (460 nm) / Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Final T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Sat July 18
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 18Z Fri July 17
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 AM Sat July 18
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: ILOCOS NORTE.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 JULY: 22.3N 115.7E / 110-140 KPH / WNW @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.0N 112.8E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.4N 110.5E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 21.0N 119.2E.
^THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR 24 HRS.
THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR 36 HRS....(more)

>> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furniture. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 18 JULY: 21.3N 119.4E / WNW @ 19 kph / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MOLAVE (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm