Friday, July 10, 2009

TD 05W (GORIO) moving away from Ilocos Norte... [Update #003]




for Friday, 10 July 2009 [12:15 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 09 2009):

Ending the 3-hrly SMS/Web Updates on TD GORIO...back to its 6-hrly updates.


05W (GORIO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GORIO [99W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003

As of 12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Fri 10 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #002
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Depression 05W (GORIO) has started to move away from the coast of Ilocos...heads for Southern China.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of 05W.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: 05W is expected to move into the South China Sea this afternoon as it becomes a Tropical Storm later. The 3-day Medium Range Forecast shows 05W turning WNW and making landfall west of Hong Kong on Monday morning, July 13 and shall weaken rapidly into a disturbance.

    + Effects: 05W's rain bands continues to spread across the western part of Extreme Northern Luzon, with improving weather later tonight. Light to moderate rains with winds & squalls plus thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly Cloudy skies w/ light occasional rains & some passing thunderstorms w/ squall plus light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: MINDORO, PALAWAN, PARTS OF VISAYAS & MINDANAO, INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF WESTERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Fri July 10 2009
    Location of Center: 18.6º N Lat 120.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 75 km (40 nm) NW of Laoag City
    Distance 2: 120 km (65 nm) NNW of Vigan City
    Distance 3: 175 km (95 nm) WSW of Calayan Island
    Distance 4: 180 km (97 nm) West of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 5: 730 km (395 nm) SE of Hong Kong
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    55 kph (30 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Depression
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
    Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
    General Direction: Southern China
    Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM PST Fri July 10
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Fri July 11
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: ILOCOS SUR AND ILOCOS NORTE.
    Now lowered: CAGAYAN, CALAYAN-BABUYAN-BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS, KALINGA, APAYAO, AND ABRA.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    12, 24, 48  & 72 HR. FORECAST:
    8 PM (12 GMT) 10 JULY: 19.0N 119.1E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 JULY: 19.5N 117.6E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 12 JULY: 20.7N 114.5E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 13 JULY: 21.7N 112.1E / 55-75 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH [LANDFALL]

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 JULY POSITION: 18.7N 120.7E.
    ^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W HAS CONTINUED TO SKIRT THE
    NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND IS MOVING
    WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING STATUS
    AFTER A 1018Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS WITHIN 200 NM OF THE
    SYSTEM REPORTED WINDS RANGING FROM 17 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTION WITH
    THE SYSTEM HAS PICKED UP AND THE LATEST PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 30
    KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY ALSO SHOW THE
    INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN SIDE
    OF THE SYSTEM....
    (
    more)

    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 10 JULY: 18.7N 119.5E / NW @ 22 kph / 55 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TD 05W (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


    Copyright © 2009 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reservedz

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