Saturday, July 18, 2009

Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) endangers Hong Kong... [Update #014]

 


for Saturday, 18 July 2009 [12:28 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sat July 18 2009):

Ending the 6-hrly SMS Updates on MOLAVE (ISANG)...Currently issuing 6-hrly Web and E-mail Updates on Typhoon MOLAVE [ISANG] (except for 12:00 AM). Meanwhile, a rapidly developing Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) has been spotted over the Philippine Sea, east of Northern Samar, more details below.


MOLAVE (ISANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TYPHOON MOLAVE [ISANG/07W/0906]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Sat 18 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / CWB RADAR/ JTWC WARNING #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Core of Typhoon MOLAVE (ISANG) dangerously heading strait towards Hong Kong...Landfall expected by early tonight.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China especially Guangdong Province should closely monitor the progress of MOLAVE.

    **Important Note: Residents of Hong Kong must take precautionary measures, as Storm Signal No. 3 may be in force in the next few hours. Kindly check out Hong Kong Observatory's bulletin on the passage of this typhoon.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MOLAVE is expected to continue moving West to WNW and shall make landfall in the vicinity of Hong Kong this evening approx 7 or 8 PM. MOLAVE is forecast to rapidly dissipate tomorrow, July 19 as it moves overland, across the mountainous terrain of Guangdong, China.

    + Effects: MOLAVE's core (Eye & Eyewall) came out again on recent satellite images -- remains over the South China Sea. Its inner bands now approaching the coast of Guangdong Province, while its outer bands has been spreading across Eastern Guangdong and coastal areas of Western Guangdong including HK and Macau. Rains and winds of 30-60 kph can be expected along the outer bands. Deteriorating conditions can be expected later in the afternoon as the inner bands and the core approaches Central Guangdong (HK-Macau District). 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 300 mm along MOLAVE's Eyewall. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible near the center of MOLAVE. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of NW Luzon, including the monsoon affected areas.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with occasional to continuous moderate to heavy rains, and passing squalls can be expected along the following affected areas: COASTAL AREAS OF WESTERN LUZON including LUBANG ISLAND and PORTIONS OF METRO MANILA. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) A new rapidly developing Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) has been spotted over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...currently located near lat 12.3N lon 132.8E...or about 890 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...drifting West slowly while embedded within the Monsoon Trough (ITCZ).


    This system will be closely monitored for possible development into a Significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 to 3 days. Watch for more information on this new disturbance as new data arrives. Kindly click the cool
    T2K Graphical Satellite Analysis, issued everyday @ 2 PM PST (06 GMT) on tropical systems across the Western Pacific.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Sat July 18 2009
    Location of Eye: 21.7º N Lat 117.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 335 km (181 nm) ESE of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 395 km (215 nm) ESE of Macau
    Distance 3: 200 km (108 nm) SSE of Shantou, China
    Distance 4: 305 km (165 nm) WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
    Distance 5: 495 km (267 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (65 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Hong Kong Area
    Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Sat July 18
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Sat July 18
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 8 AM Sat July 18
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now lowered: ILOCOS NORTE. 
     
     
    JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JULY: 22.3N 115.1E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 24 KPH 
    8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JULY: 22.9N 112.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 19 KPH
    8 PM (12 GMT) 19 JULY: 23.0N 110.3E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH


    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JULY POSITION: 21.3N 118.3E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (MOLAVE) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
    WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ON THE
    SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
    SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, BUT IS STILL MOVING RELATIVELY
    QUICKLY AT 09 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE
    VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WHICH IS ACTING TO PREVENT FURTHER
    INTENSIFICATION, COUNTER-BALANCED BY SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
    AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN STABLE DVORAK SATELLITE
    INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 (PGTW) TO 65 (KNES) KNOTS...
    (
    more)

    >> MOLAVE, meaning: A popular hard wood used in furnitureName contributed by: Philippines.
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 18 JULY: 21.6N 118.0E / WNW @ 22 kph / 95 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MOLAVE (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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