Thursday, July 16, 2009

TS ISANG (07W) still heading towards Extreme Northern Luzon... [Update #005]

 


for Thursday, 16 July 2009 [8:06 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 16 2009):

Just uploaded the T2K 6 AM Track Chart...Currently issuing 6-hrly E-Mail, SMS & Web Updates on the TS ISANG [07W] (except for 12:00 AM).


ISANG (07W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM ISANG [07W]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Thu 16 July 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • ISANG (07W) strengthens into a Tropical Storm...remains a threat to Extreme Northern Luzon...outer rainbands affecting Luzon.

    *Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of ISANG.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: ISANG is expected to continue tracking towards the WNW under the steering influence of a low-to-mid-level high pressure north of it. The 5-day long-range forecast shows ISANG reaching its peak strength of 85 kph as it passes over the northern coast of Cagayan tomorrow noontime...crossing Calayan Group of Islands later in the afternoon (Friday). ISANG shall exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday morning, July 18 and weaken into a 65-kph storm before making landfall over Hong Kong Area around noontime, Sunday July 19. Dissipating of this system is forecast along the mountainous terrain of Western Guangdong in China on early Monday morning July 20.

    + Effects: ISANG's circulation continues to slowly consolidate over the Philippine Sea and remains broad...Its western outer bands now spreading across Luzon including the northern part of Bicol...Cloudy skies with passing light to moderate rains, squalls and scattered thunderstorms can be expected along these bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 100 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the center of ISANG and along mountain slopes of Eastern Luzon. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: WEAK >> Partly to mostly cloudy skies w/ light to sometimes moderate occasional rains, scattered thunderstorms, squalls and light to moderate SW winds not exceeding 35 kph can be expected over the following affected areas: MINDORO, WESTERN VISAYAS & NORTHERN MINDANAO.

    + Tropical Cyclone Watch:

    (1) Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA) over the South China Sea has weakened and is no longer a threat for further development.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Thu July 16 2009
    Location of Center: 16.1º N Lat 125.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 335 km (182 nm) NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
    Distance 2: 390 km (210 nm) NE of Daet, Cam Norte
    Distance 3: 400 km (215 nm) NE of Metro Naga/CWC
    Distance 4: 405 km (218 nm) East of Casiguran, Aurora
    Distance 5: 475 km (257 nm) ESE of Tuguegarao, City
    Distance 6: 515 km (280 nm) SE of Aparri, Cagayan
    Distance 7: 540 km (290 nm) ENE of Metro Manila
    Distance 8: 640 km (345 nm) SE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    General Direction: Extreme Northern Luzon
    Size (in Diameter): 550 km (295 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
    T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PST Thu July 16
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Wed July 15
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: CAGAYAN, ISABELA & NORTHERN AURORA.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides.

    JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 16 JULY: 16.9N 125.1E / 75-95 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 17 JULY: 18.1N 123.6E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 17 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 18 JULY: 20.3N 120.2E / 85-100 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 19 JULY: 22.1N 116.0E / 65-85 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 JULY POSITION: 15.7N 126.6E.
    ^THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON IMPROVED
    CONVECTION, A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS AND A 141310Z ASCAT
    PASS SHOWING A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
    UNFLAGGED 35-KNOT WINDS. A 151637Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
    ALSO SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE STORM
    CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 07W IS IN AN AREA OF
    MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
    A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTH-
    EAST. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
    SYSTEM IS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
    GUIDE TS 07W ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
    FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA
    SEA, TS 07W WILL START TO ENCOUNTER MORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
    RESULTING IN A MAX INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS THROUGH THE LUZON
    STRAIT AND DISSIPATION OVER CHINA BY TAU 96...
    (
    more)
    ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.): 
    > 4 AM (20 GMT) 16 JULY: 16.0N 125.3E / WNW @ 17 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
       
  • ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS ISANG (07W)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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