Saturday, December 12, 2015

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 001

 

Tropical Storm MELOR (NONA) Update Number 001

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM MELOR (NONA) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 12 December 2015
Next Update: Saturday Evening, 12 December 2015

The Tropical Depression with international name MELOR (a Malaysian word for Jasmine flower) has rapidly intensified into a Tropical Storm (TS) and entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It is now locally named as "NONA." as it may pose a serious threat to Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas early next week.

MELOR (NONA) will enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) bringing occasional rain showers with some thunderstorms across the Northern and Eastern Sections of Luzon beginning next week. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures against possible flashfloods or landslides especially during heavy downpour.

Residents and visitors along Eastern and Southern Luzon incl. Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas should closely monitor the development of TS MELOR (NONA).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.


DIRECT CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be directly affected or that are being directly affected by the hazards generated by this current tropical cyclone.

None for the next 48 hours.


CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 AM PhT today, December 12...2100 GMT.

Classification/Name: TS MELOR (NONA)
Location: Over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...(near 10.4N 135.0E)
About: 1,056 km east-southeast of Borongan City, Samar...or 1,227 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 85 kph near the center...Gustiness: 110 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near and southeast of the center): 25 to 200 mm [Moderate to Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 555 km (Small)
Area of Damaging Winds (100 kph or more wind gusts): None
Past Movement: West-Northwest @ 35 kph
Forecast Movement: West-Northwest @ 18 kph
Towards: Bicol Region


2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK

TS MELOR (NONA) is expected to move west-northwest with a decrease forward speed throughout the outlook period. On the forecast track, MELOR (NONA) shall traverse the eastern and central parts of the Philippine Sea through Monday early morning (Dec 14).

TS MELOR (NONA) is forecast to continue intensifying throughout the outlook period and could become a Typhoon on Sunday (Dec 13).

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary* for this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies into a Typhoon as it moves WNW across the eastern part of the Philippine Sea...about 644 km east-northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar [2AM DEC 13: 12.0N 131.3E @ 130kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying as it move across the Central part of the Philippine Sea...about 403 km east-southeast of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM DEC 14: 13.2N 128.0E @ 160kph]. Confidence Level: MEDIUM.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Approaching the eastern coast of the Bicol Region...about 98 km east of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM DEC 15: 13.6N 125.2E @ 165kph]. Confidence Level: LOW.

*Important Note: Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ADDITIONAL DISTANCES

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat Dec 12, 2015
Location of Center: Near 10.4º N Lat 135.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 1018 km ESE of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Distance 2: 1157 km ESE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 3: 1266 km ESE of Legazpi City, Albay
Distance 4: 1242 km ESE of Sorsogon City, Sorsogon
Distance 5: 1331 km ESE of Metro Naga



Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 09:27 0 comments

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Tropical Storm IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 09 [FINAL]

 

Tropical Storm IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 09 [FINAL]


Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) has weakened into a Tropical Storm (TS), and moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility this morning. Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is forecast to continue moving Northeast to East-Northeast through the next 2 to 3 days...transforming into an Extra-Tropical Cyclone on Friday, Nov 27.

As of 11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) today, Wednesday, November 25, 2015, the center of TS IN-FA (MARILYN) was located some 1,560 km East-Northeast of Basco, Batanes [21.2N 137.0E]...with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness up to 95 kph. It was moving Northeast at 22 kph towards the Sea South of Japan.

Since IN-FA (MARILYN) already left the PAR...This will be the final update on this weather system.



Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 01:09 0 comments

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 08

 

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 08


Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) has completed its recurvature while losing strength over the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea...now heading Northeastward and is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday morning (Nov 25). Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is forecast to continue moving Northeast to East-Northeast through the next 2 to 3 days...transforming into an Extra-Tropical Cyclone on Friday evening, Nov 27.

As of 11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) today, Tuesday, November 24, 2015, the center of TY IN-FA (MARILYN) was located some 94 km West of the Northeastern Border of the PAR...or 1,269 km East-Southeast of Basco, Batanes [19.5N 134.1E]...with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph near the center and gustiness up to 160 kph. It was moving East-Northeast at 15 kph towards the Sea South of Japan.

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) remains too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on Typhoon IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Wed Nov 25).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 01:47 0 comments

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 07

 

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 07


Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) has started to move on a slow Northerly track across the Eastern Part of the Philippine Sea while continuing losing strength. Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is forecast to start moving North-Northeast to Northeastward across the open seas...likely to leave PAR on Thursday (Nov 26).

As of 11:00 PM PhT (15:00 GMT) today, Monday, November 23, 2015, the center of TY IN-FA (MARILYN) was located some 1,002 km East-Southeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 1,020 km East-Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora [17.4N 131.6E]...with maximum sustained winds of 160 kph near the center and gustiness up to 195 kph. It was moving North at 13 kph across the Eastern part of the Philippine Sea.

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) remains too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on Typhoon IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Tue Nov 24).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 01:47 0 comments

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 06

 

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) StormWatch No. 06


The weakening Typhoon IN-FA has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving quickly across the easternmost part of the Philippine Sea. It is now locally named as "MARILYN." This fast-moving typhoon remains a non-threat to the Philippine Islands. Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is forecast to perform a recurvature with a track farther away from the Philippine Sea...likely to leave PAR on Thursday or Friday (Nov 26-27).

As of 9:00 PM PhT (13:00 GMT) today, Sunday, November 22, 2015, the center of TY IN-FA (MARILYN) was located some 1,028 km East-Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 1,237 km East-Southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [15.1N 133.6E]...with maximum sustained winds of 165 kph near the center and gustiness up to 205 kph. It was moving West-Northwest at 27 kph across the Eastern part of the Philippine Sea.

Typhoon IN-FA (MARILYN) remains too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on Typhoon IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Mon Nov 23).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 01:46 0 comments

Typhoon IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 05

 

Typhoon IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 05


The fast-moving Typhoon IN-FA (27W) has just passed well to the south of Guam late last night and is now on its way towards the Eastern Philippine Sea. Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday afternoon or evening (Nov 22)...and may start recurving towards the Northeast farther away from the Philippine Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday (Nov 24-25).

As of 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) today, Saturday, November 21, 2015, the center of TY IN-FA was located some 478 km West-Southwest of Guam or 1,641 km East of Northern Samar, Philippines [12.1N 140.6E]...with maximum sustained winds of 200 kph near the center and gustiness up to 240 kph. It was moving West-Northwest at 28 kph towards the Eastern part of the Philippine Sea.

Typhoon IN-FA remains too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on TS IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Sun Nov 22).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 01:45 0 comments

Friday, November 20, 2015

Typhoon IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 04

 

Typhoon IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 04


IN-FA has re-intensified back to Typhoon (TY) strength as it approaches Southern Marianas...expected to pass-by to the south of Guam early tomorrow morning (Sat 21 Nov). Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday evening or early Monday morning (Nov 22-23) and may not make any landfall in any part of the Philippines.

As of 4:00 PM PhT (08:00 GMT) today, Friday, November 20, 2015, the center of TY IN-FA was located some 401 km South-Southeast of Guam or 2,327 km East of Eastern Visayas, Philippines [10.5N 147.0E]...with maximum sustained winds of 175 kph near the center and gustiness up to 215 kph. It was moving West-Northwest at 23 kph towards Southern Marianas Area.

TY IN-FA remains too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on TS IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow afternoon (Sat Nov 21).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 17:27 0 comments

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Tropical Storm IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 02

 

Tropical Storm IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 02


Tropical Storm 27W is now a well-developed Typhoon (TY) as it moves closer to Central Micronesia....now internationally named as "IN-FA" - a Macao/Chinese name for fireworks. Based on the initial Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is expected to become a strong Typhoon as it passes close to the south of Guam on Saturday, Nov 21st. The long-range forecast shows that there is still a 50-50 chance that this typhoon will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday (Nov 23).

As of 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) today, Wednesday, November 18, 2015, the center of TS IN-FA was located some 402 km Southeast of Chuuk State, Micronesia or 3,161 km East-Southeast of the Mindanao, Philippines [6.1N 155.2E]...with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and gustiness up to 150 kph. It was moving West-Northwest at 21 kph towards Central Micronesia.

TS IN-FA is still too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on TS IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Thu Nov 19).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 19:04 0 comments

Tropical Storm IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 03

 

Tropical Storm IN-FA (27W) StormWatch No. 03


IN-FA has weakened back to a Tropical Storm during the past 24 hours while passing near Chuuk State in Central Micronesia...could regain Typhoon status within the next 24 hours...threatens Guam and Southern Marianas. Based on the latest Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), IN-FA is expected to pass just to the south of Guam by early Saturday morning, Nov 21st. The long-range forecast shows that there is now an 80% chance that this typhoon will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday evening or early Monday morning (Nov 22-23).

As of 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) today, Thursday, November 19, 2015, the center of TS IN-FA was located some 834 km Southeast of Guam or 2,722 km East of Northern Mindanao, Philippines [9.0N 151.0E]...with maximum sustained winds of 95 kph near the center and gustiness up to 120 kph. It was moving West-Northwest to Northwest at 24 kph towards Guam-Southern Marianas Area.

TS IN-FA remains too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on TS IN-FA. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Fri Nov 20).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 19:03 0 comments

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Tropical Storm 27W (Unnamed) StormWatch No. 01

 

Tropical Storm 27W (Unnamed) StormWatch No. 01


The strong Tropical Disturbance 95W (LPA) over the easternmost part of the Caroline Islands has rapidly strengthened into a Tropical Depression (TD) this morning and eventually into a Tropical Storm (TS) tagged as 27W. Based on the initial Global Dynamic Forecast Models (GDFM), 27W is likely to become a Typhoon as it passes close to Guam and the Southern Marianas on Saturday, Nov 21st. The long-range forecast shows that there is a 50-50 chance that this storm will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday or Tuesday (Nov 23-24).

As of 5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) today, Tuesday, November 17, 2015, the center of TS 27W was located some 350 km Southeast of Pohnpei State, Micronesia or 3,790 km East-Southeast of the Philippines [5.0N 160.8E]...with maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center and gustiness up to 85 kph. It was moving West-Northwest to Northwest at 32 kph towards Central Micronesia.

TS 27W is still too far away to directly affect any part of the Philippines.

Please monitor the situation closely and stay tuned for the latest info on TS 27W. The next WeatherPhilippines StormWatch on this system will be issued tomorrow evening (Wed Nov 18).

Issued by: David Michael V. Padua for Weather.com.ph

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Posted by MJ Klein at 21:13 0 comments

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